Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:24:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
90 0x906d…f0e5 other 33 markets active 2h ago coverage 323d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate38%12W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$26now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 31% −$1
other 25% $0
politics 15% $0
economics 14% $0
finance 6% $0
tech 5% $0
culture 2% $0
sports 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.1% -9.6% 67% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 7 -0.1% -9.6% 57% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 7 -0.1% -9.6% 57% 0% -9.9%
all 32 +0.1% -9.4% 38% 3% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 3% -9.6%
10% -18.1% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

323d coverage
Net worth$26
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses12 / 20
Open positions1
Markets (closed)32 / 33
History coverage323d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No 94¢ 94¢ $26 $26 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $55 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $36 −$1 -3%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $10 $0 +3%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $27 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 13 $41 $0 -1%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 11 $30 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $22 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Jan 30 $1 $0 -15%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Sep 08 $37 $0 +0%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 05 $2 $0 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Aug 04 $19 $0 +0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Aug 04 $4 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Aug 04 $2 $0 -4%
Will Nick Delehanty win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 04 $2 $0 +14%
Will Vlad Gheorghe be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Aug 04 $36 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 04 $5 $0 -0%
Xi Jinping out before October? Aug 04 $1 $0 +8%
Will 'Avatar: Fire and Ash' have the best domestic opening weekend in Aug 04 $36 $0 -1%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on December 31? Aug 03 $32 $0 +0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 03 $4 $0 +0%
Will Seán Kelly win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 03 $34 $0 -0%
Will Fergus Finlay win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 03 $29 $0 +0%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Aug 03 $12 $0 +1%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.7% in 2025? Aug 02 $40 $0 +0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Aug 02 $40 $0 -0%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 60% and 100% on August 1 Aug 02 $57 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Judy Shelton as next Fed Chair in 2025? Aug 02 $19 $0 +0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 01 $19 $0 +0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Aug 01 $5 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 40% and 60% on August 15 Jul 31 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jul 31 $5 $0 +0%
Will Max Verstappen finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship? Jul 30 $5 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $26 1h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $27 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $27 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 93¢ $27 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 92¢ $27 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 33¢ $10 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 32¢ $10 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 10¢ $8 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 11¢ $5 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 11¢ $5 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $6 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $22 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $23 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $4 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $13 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 43¢ $13 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $18 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $10 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $28 5d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $30 6d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $30 6d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $22 7d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $22 7d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 55¢ $28 8d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 55¢ $28 8d
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? SELL No 99¢ $37 281d
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 316d
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? SELL No 93¢ $19 317d
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 317d
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 317d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26.39 · official $26.39 (match) · 150 history records