Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T20:51:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

90
0x906f…371a
weather · 625 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$19,279 -54%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$19,316 · open +$37
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$2,182
Realized−$19,316
Unrealized+$37
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses506 / 450
Open positions58
Markets (closed)956 / 625
History coverage23d
Avg bet$57
Trades / day124.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 58 History 956 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$21,125
7 days−$21,006
14 days−$20,468
30 days−$19,316
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 13? No 91¢ 91¢ $141 $141 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 13? No 98¢ 98¢ $120 $120 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 25°C on June 13? No 94¢ 95¢ $90 $90 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 29°C on June 13? No 92¢ 93¢ $86 $87 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 13? No 95¢ 96¢ $82 $84 +$2 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 30°C on June 13? No 96¢ 97¢ $68 $68 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 14? No 91¢ 94¢ $66 $68 +$3 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 22°C on June 13? No 92¢ 94¢ $58 $60 +$2 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 13? No 40¢ 41¢ $57 $59 +$2 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 28°C on June 13? No 68¢ 69¢ $55 $56 +$1 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 26°C on June 13? No 86¢ 88¢ $54 $56 +$1 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 14? No 96¢ 96¢ $53 $53 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 14? No 93¢ 93¢ $52 $52 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 14? No 84¢ 76¢ $55 $49 −$5 (-10%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 13? No 74¢ 74¢ $49 $49 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 21°C on June 13? No 79¢ 84¢ $45 $48 +$3 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 13? No 91¢ 81¢ $51 $46 −$5 (-10%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 13? No 63¢ 68¢ $42 $45 +$3 (+8%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 14? No 95¢ 96¢ $44 $45 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on June 13? No 85¢ 88¢ $40 $42 +$1 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 31°C on June 13? No 99¢ 99¢ $41 $41 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 14? No 73¢ 77¢ $38 $40 +$2 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 13? No 85¢ 85¢ $39 $39 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 14? No 86¢ 90¢ $36 $38 +$2 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 14? No 85¢ 85¢ $34 $34 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on May 7? Jun 12 $23 −$23 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on April 15? Jun 12 $103 −$103 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 45-46°F on No Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C or higher on April 2 Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 64-65°F on October 1 Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 81-82°F on Oc Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on May 12? Jun 12 $36 −$36 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on May 8? Jun 12 $23 −$23 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on Oc Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on Ap Jun 12 $93 −$93 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 23°C on April 10? Jun 12 $22 −$22 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 10°C on March 26? Jun 12 $69 −$69 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on January 13? Jun 12 $88 −$163 -186%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 26-27°F on February 1 Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on Ma Jun 12 $292 −$292 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 13°C or higher on May 5? Jun 12 $34 −$34 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on May 6? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on May Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -5°C on March 2? Jun 12 $46 −$46 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 28-29°F on February Jun 12 $68 −$68 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on April 19? Jun 12 $390 −$390 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 50-51°F on Ap Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 68-69°F on April 21 Jun 12 $17 −$17 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on April 5? Jun 12 $24 −$24 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 11°C on April 24? Jun 12 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 21°C on April 28? Jun 12 $40 −$40 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 10°C on May 12? Jun 12 $159 −$159 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 28°C on May 16? Jun 12 $26 −$26 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on Ma Jun 12 $94 −$94 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C or higher on May 13? Jun 12 $19 −$19 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on May 8? Jun 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C or higher on March 29? Jun 12 $64 −$64 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 22°C on May 4? Jun 12 $58 −$58 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on April 16? Jun 12 $73 −$73 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 46-47°F on Ja Jun 12 $73 −$73 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 12°C or below on May 16? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 68-69°F on April 7? Jun 12 $68 −$68 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on April 7? Jun 12 $39 −$39 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on April 22 Jun 12 $26 −$26 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on April 26? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C or higher on May 17? Jun 12 $369 −$369 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on May 6? Jun 12 $32 −$32 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 79-80°F on Se Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 48-49°F on April 15 Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on May 8? Jun 12 $96 −$96 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on February 16? Jun 12 $19 −$19 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 21°C on April 2? Jun 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on May 8? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on Apri Jun 12 $103 −$103 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 26-27°F on Ja Jun 12 $151 −$151 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 100% +$1,963
other 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 13? BUY No 64¢ $8 1m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 13? BUY No 64¢ $12 1m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 13? BUY No 83¢ $11 1m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C or below on June 13? BUY No 38¢ $7 10m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C or below on June 13? BUY No 36¢ $1 10m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 14? BUY No 97¢ $15 12m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 13? BUY No 97¢ $16 24m
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 13? BUY No 73¢ $10 31m
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 13? BUY No 73¢ $3 33m
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 14? BUY No 85¢ $11 38m
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 14? BUY No 84¢ $8 41m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 14? BUY No 93¢ $13 41m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C or higher on June 13? BUY No 96¢ $15 43m
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 14? BUY No 92¢ $16 44m
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 27°C on June 13? BUY No 67¢ $10 45m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 13? BUY No 96¢ $13 49m
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 27°C on June 13? BUY No 63¢ $5 49m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 13? BUY No 63¢ $9 50m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 13? BUY No 78¢ $13 50m
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 13? BUY No 70¢ $3 50m
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 29°C on June 13? BUY No 94¢ $17 55m
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 22°C on June 13? BUY No 94¢ $6 56m
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 31°C on June 13? BUY No 98¢ $5 58m
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 31°C on June 13? BUY No 98¢ $5 59m
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 30°C on June 13? BUY No 96¢ $5 59m
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 31°C on June 13? BUY No 98¢ $5 59m
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 28°C on June 13? BUY No 69¢ $10 59m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C or below on June 13? BUY No 31¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 14? BUY No 96¢ $14 1h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 30°C on June 13? BUY No 98¢ $15 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-42.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 503 -76.8% -79.0% 19% 10% -83.1%
≤30d 956 -36.0% -42.1% 53% 27% -41.4%
≤90d 956 -36.0% -42.1% 53% 27% -41.4%
all 956 -36.0% -42.1% 53% 27% -41.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover124.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -42.1% 27% -41.4%
10% ← realistic here -47.6% 18% -47.0%
15% -52.7% 10% -52.1%
20% -57.3% 4% -56.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,182.33 · official $2,182.35 (match) · 3500 history records