Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:38:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
90 0x906f…2877 sports 495 markets active 18h ago coverage 67d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 67d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$2,276 (+3%) realized +$2,253 · open +$23
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate52%248W / 227L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$180per market
Trades / day44.1pace
Fees−$1,222est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$2,649now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$229
7 days+$1,954
14 days−$1,618
30 days+$109
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 95% +$372
other 4% −$18
crypto 0% +$29
world 0% −$26
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-6.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 +37.5% +24.4% 65% 65% +34.2%
≤30d 158 +8.2% -2.1% 54% 54% -9.2%
≤90d 475 +3.2% -6.6% 52% 52% -9.2%
all 475 +3.2% -6.6% 52% 52% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover44.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.6% 52% -9.2%
10% ← realistic here -15.6% 52% -17.9%
15% -23.7% 50% -25.8%
20% -31.2% 41% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
5.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$152 vs −$165 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

67d coverage
Net worth$2,649
Realized+$2,253
Unrealized+$23
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses248 / 227
Est. fees paid−$1,222
Open positions20
Markets (closed)475 / 495
History coverage67d ⚠
Avg bet$180
Trades / day44.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 20 History 475 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 66¢ 92¢ $225 $315 +$90 (+40%)
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Series 7 Playoffs INOX Division 56¢ 68¢ $240 $294 +$54 (+22%)
Will Senegal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 71¢ 68¢ $221 $213 −$8 (-4%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 66¢ 68¢ $196 $201 +$4 (+2%)
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 48¢ 56¢ $162 $191 +$29 (+18%)
Will Turkiye advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 20¢ 46¢ $78 $185 +$107 (+137%)
Will Saudi Arabia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 63¢ 57¢ $200 $182 −$17 (-9%)
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 69¢ 94¢ $120 $163 +$43 (+36%)
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 33¢ 38¢ $136 $153 +$18 (+13%)
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 38¢ 36¢ $140 $134 −$6 (-4%)
Will New Zealand advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 31¢ 30¢ $123 $121 −$2 (-2%)
Will DR Congo advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 42¢ 42¢ $102 $101 −$1 (-1%)
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 33¢ 28¢ $111 $92 −$18 (-17%)
Will Uruguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 13¢ 19¢ $52 $74 +$23 (+44%)
Will Austria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 26¢ 8¢ $229 $67 −$162 (-71%)
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 61¢ 42¢ $82 $56 −$26 (-31%)
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs FURIA 73¢ 74¢ $43 $43 +$0 (+1%)
Will Tunisia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 38¢ 8¢ $135 $30 −$106 (-78%)
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 14¢ 16¢ $22 $23 +$2 (+8%)
Will Switzerland reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 55¢ 52¢ $11 $11 −$1 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Jun 16 $237 −$237 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $128 +$221 +172%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $190 +$245 +129%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $226 +$219 +97%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $117 −$117 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $111 −$111 -100%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Jun 14 $126 +$117 +92%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs MOUZ (+1.5) Jun 13 $184 +$152 +83%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) Jun 13 $160 +$164 +103%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $97 −$97 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $56 −$56 -100%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) Jun 12 $57 +$94 +165%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 12 $100 +$220 +219%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $200 +$168 +84%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $27 −$27 -100%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $202 +$224 +111%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $148 +$176 +119%
Counter-Strike: GenOne vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - European Pro League Serie Jun 12 $33 −$33 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $149 −$149 -100%
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs INOX Division (BO3) - CCT Europe Series Jun 12 $185 −$1 -0%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs G2 Ares (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 12 $201 +$97 +48%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $196 +$112 +57%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $66 −$66 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 11 $180 +$102 +57%
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs B8 (+1.5) Jun 11 $124 +$137 +111%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $193 +$146 +76%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - European Pro League Seri Jun 11 $2 +$3 +172%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $110 +$111 +101%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs INOX Division (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Jun 10 $58 −$58 -100%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 4 Group Jun 10 $141 +$183 +129%
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs HEROIC Academy (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 4 Gro Jun 10 $37 +$13 +36%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $176 −$176 -100%
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - CCT Europe Series Jun 09 $188 −$188 -100%
Counter-Strike: Lavked vs Misa Esports (BO3) - European Pro League Ser Jun 09 $289 −$289 -100%
Counter-Strike: Abyssal vs Rooster (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Group Jun 09 $140 −$140 -100%
Counter-Strike: INOX Division vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 4 Gro Jun 09 $305 −$54 -18%
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs BIG (+1.5) Jun 08 $366 −$366 -100%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $324 −$324 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $400 −$400 -100%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $117 −$117 -100%
Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $319 −$319 -100%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $371 +$313 +84%
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs GenOne (BO3) - European Pro League Serie Jun 07 $255 −$255 -100%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $103 −$103 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $404 +$193 +48%
Counter-Strike: ARCRED vs ASTRAL (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group St Jun 06 $402 +$204 +51%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $145 −$145 -100%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $246 +$96 +39%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs FlyQuest (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $159 +$241 +152%
Map Handicap: TL (-1.5) vs FlyQuest (+1.5) Jun 05 $388 +$209 +54%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 73¢ $12 17h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 73¢ $24 18h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 73¢ $4 18h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 73¢ $4 19h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch BUY Gentle Mates 51¢ $7 21h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch BUY Gentle Mates 49¢ $10 22h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch BUY Gentle Mates 51¢ $9 23h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch BUY Gentle Mates 50¢ $65 23h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch BUY Gentle Mates 50¢ $36 23h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch BUY Gentle Mates 51¢ $6 23h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch BUY Gentle Mates 51¢ $29 23h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch BUY Gentle Mates 51¢ $64 23h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch BUY Gentle Mates 51¢ $8 23h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch BUY Gentle Mates 48¢ $2 24h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch BUY Gentle Mates 48¢ $1 24h
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 27h
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 27h
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $11 27h
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $9 28h
Will Saudi Arabia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA Worl BUY No 63¢ $33 42h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 BUY Yes 66¢ $26 43h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 BUY Yes 66¢ $7 2d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY BetBoom Team 43¢ $190 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 36¢ $128 2d
Will Senegal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 71¢ $37 2d
Will Uruguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 12¢ $9 2d
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se BUY INOX Division 56¢ $5 2d
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se BUY INOX Division 56¢ $6 2d
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se BUY INOX Division 56¢ $26 2d
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se BUY INOX Division 56¢ $59 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,649.31 · official $2,649.35 (match) · 3500 history records