Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T22:37:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
90 0x9071…5921 other 121 markets active 4h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$34 (-7%) realized −$38 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate14%16W / 97L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day20.7pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit36%portable
Net worth$33now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 58% −$92
sports 36% +$83
crypto 6% −$27
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-18.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 113 -9.6% -18.2% 14% 14% -17.6%
≤30d 113 -9.6% -18.2% 14% 14% -17.6%
≤90d 113 -9.6% -18.2% 14% 14% -17.6%
all 113 -9.6% -18.2% 14% 14% -17.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.2% 14% -17.6%
10% ← realistic here -26.0% 14% -25.5%
15% -33.2% 14% -32.7%
20% -39.7% 14% -39.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$4 · ×5.42 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$33
Realized−$38
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses16 / 97
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions8
Markets (closed)113 / 121
History coverage6d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day20.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit36%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 113 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 12¢ $10 $15 +$5 (+49%)
Will Australia win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 21¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+7%)
Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-19%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+12%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-45%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 97 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Team to Take First Corner Jun 18 $10 +$19 +188%
Granit Xhaka: 1+ assists Jun 18 $1 −$1 -98%
Breel Embolo: 2+ goals Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Edin Džeko: 2+ goals Jun 18 $2 −$2 -97%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -97%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: England 2 - 2 Croatia? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -98%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 17 $2 +$11 +550%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $3 −$3 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 13.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 13.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $3 +$30 +982%
Exact Score: Austria 0 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Austria 0 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 1 Norway? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: France 2 - 2 Senegal? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: France 0 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -97%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 13.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $15 −$15 -97%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 +$18 +344%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 1 Uruguay? Jun 16 $1 +$8 +786%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 13.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $5 +$45 +874%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $5 +$13 +262%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 3 Uruguay? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 2 Uruguay? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 1 Uruguay? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 3 Egypt? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 3 Egypt? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 2 Egypt? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Granit Xhaka: 1+ assists BUY Yes 17¢ $1 4h
Breel Embolo: 2+ goals BUY Yes 12¢ $1 4h
Edin Džeko: 2+ goals BUY Yes 4¢ $2 4h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Team to Take First Corner BUY Bosnia-Herzegovina 34¢ $10 4h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 12.5 Total Corners BUY Over 17¢ $2 4h
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 4h
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 5h
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 5h
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 5h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 12.5 Total Corners BUY Over 14¢ $5 6h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 6h
Exact Score: England 2 - 2 Croatia? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 26h
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 26h
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 26h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 26h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 15¢ $2 30h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 14¢ $3 30h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 13.5 Total Corners BUY Over 14¢ $10 30h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 20¢ $3 30h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 30h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 30h
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 30h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 13.5 Total Corners BUY Over 10¢ $5 43h
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 0 Jordan? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 43h
Exact Score: Austria 0 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 43h
Exact Score: Austria 0 - 0 Jordan? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 43h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 43h
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 2d
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 1 Norway? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 2d
Exact Score: France 2 - 2 Senegal? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.98 · official $32.98 (match) · 144 history records