Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T20:47:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
90 0x9072…2c99 world 82 markets active 2h ago coverage 541d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$23 (-1%) realized −$23 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate34%27W / 53L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 43% −$15
other 21% $0
politics 20% $0
sports 14% −$8
tech 1% $0
economics 0% +$1
finance 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +0.4% -9.1% 50% 0% -9.1%
≤30d 23 -0.0% -9.5% 39% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 68 -0.7% -10.2% 35% 1% -10.0%
all 80 -1.5% -10.9% 34% 2% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.9% 2% -10.3%
10% -19.4% 2% -18.9%
15% -27.2% 1% -26.7%
20% -34.3% 0% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.26 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.24 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

541d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$23
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses27 / 53
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions2
Markets (closed)80 / 82
History coverage541d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 80 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 56¢ 54¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-4%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 27¢ 21¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? Jun 24 $50 $0 +1%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 24 $26 $0 +0%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 23 $23 $0 +1%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $26 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $24 $0 -0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $26 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 16 $26 $0 -0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $22 +$1 +6%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $22 +$1 +3%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $25 −$1 -2%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $31 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 12 $21 −$3 -14%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $52 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $57 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 04 $26 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 03 $16 $0 -1%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 03 $11 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 02 $154 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 01 $26 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 31 $27 $0 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $84 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 29 $20 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 27 $4 $0 +5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 25 $19 −$4 -21%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 23 $20 −$8 -42%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? May 23 $16 −$3 -17%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 21 $45 $0 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 21 $45 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 20 $41 +$1 +1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 19 $42 $0 +1%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 18 $109 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 17 $58 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 17 $46 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 17 $2 $0 +32%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 16 $87 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 26 $43 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $174 −$1 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 25 $91 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $46 $0 +0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 24 $3 $0 +3%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $2 $0 +0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $108 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $83 $0 +0%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15? Apr 21 $5 $0 +0%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 19 $2 $0 -3%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $89 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 18 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $39 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 17 $39 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 17 $2 $0 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $27 2h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $27 2h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $23 11h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $1 11h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $24 13h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $26 15h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $26 15h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 82¢ $24 29h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $23 32h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $26 6d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $26 6d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $10 7d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $14 7d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $24 7d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $26 7d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $26 7d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $2 8d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $24 8d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $26 8d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 72¢ $9 10d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 72¢ $14 10d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 68¢ $22 10d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $22 10d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $22 10d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 84¢ $24 11d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 86¢ $25 11d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $3 11d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $2 11d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 11d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.04 · official $0.00 · 334 history records