Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:22:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
90 0x9078…f1d7 sports 1256 markets active 0h ago coverage 40d ⚠
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 39d only
✗ bot/MM pace (64 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$423 (+3%) realized +$432 · open −$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate53%626W / 554L
Drawdown80%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day64.4pace
Fees−$36est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$408now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$270
7 days−$304
14 days−$316
30 days−$34
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 72% +$436
sports 18% +$180
other 9% −$347
politics 0% −$6
world 0% −$3
tech 0% $0
finance 0% −$6
weather 0% −$2
culture 0% −$4
economics 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (64 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-15.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 87 -0.4% -9.9% 56% 55% -35.9%
≤30d 800 -4.8% -13.9% 54% 51% -10.0%
≤90d 1180 -6.7% -15.6% 53% 49% -8.0%
all 1180 -6.7% -15.6% 53% 49% -8.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover64.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.6% 49% -8.0%
10% ← realistic here -23.6% 42% -16.8%
15% -31.0% 36% -24.8%
20% -37.8% 29% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$8 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

40d coverage
Net worth$408
Realized+$432
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses626 / 554
Est. fees paid−$36
Open positions74
Markets (closed)1180 / 1256
History coverage40d ⚠
Avg bet$12
Trades / day64.4
Drawdown80%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 74 History 1180 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Portugal 54¢ 55¢ $89 $90 +$1 (+1%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 69¢ 78¢ $14 $16 +$2 (+12%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-2%)
US x Cuba economic deal by June 30, 2026? No 69¢ 89¢ $9 $12 +$3 (+29%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+6%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 13¢ $12 $10 −$2 (-18%)
Will Massimiliano Allegri be the next manager of SSC Napoli? Yes 19¢ 95¢ $2 $10 +$8 (+398%)
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 73¢ 86¢ $8 $9 +$1 (+17%)
Will Spain reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 63¢ 56¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-12%)
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 56¢ 48¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-15%)
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Yes 86¢ 88¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+3%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 44¢ 88¢ $3 $7 +$3 (+99%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 12¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+31%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 10¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+20%)
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 34¢ 33¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
Will Germany score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 86¢ 70¢ $7 $6 −$1 (-19%)
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? Yes 64¢ 72¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+12%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $3 $6 +$2 (+83%)
Will Germany reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 71¢ 72¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 24¢ 25¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Ekaterina Alexandrova Aryna Sabalenka 82¢ 80¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
World Cup Goals H2H: Salah vs. Mane Mane 60¢ 48¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-19%)
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 12¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-21%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 79¢ 94¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 348 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Khvicha Kvaratskhelia record the most Player of the Match awards Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Khvicha Kvaratskhelia record the most assists in the 2025-26 UEFA Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Parma: Marco Cecchinato vs Federico Bondioli Jun 17 $5 +$3 +57%
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Ignacio Buse Jun 17 $5 +$2 +36%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $6 +$2 +34%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A Jun 17 $20 +$32 +157%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $5 +$2 +32%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $2 +$3 +129%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $13 +$4 +31%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 17 $2 +$1 +52%
Michael Olise: 1+ assists Jun 16 $2 +$4 +206%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 16 $115 −$110 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 16 $18 −$17 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 16 $66 +$17 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 16 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 16 $66 +$28 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 16 $88 −$85 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 16 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 16 $12 −$11 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 16 $13 −$12 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 16 $21 +$12 +58%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $23 +$14 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 16 $67 +$13 +19%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 16 $10 +$12 +114%
Alexander Sørloth: 1+ goals Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
HSBC Championships: Jenson Brooksby vs Martin Damm Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Dublin: Jerome Kym vs Thanasi Kokkinakis Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the Referendum on the Civilian Service Act be approved in Switzer Jun 16 $3 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 16 $28 −$27 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 16 $15 +$6 +41%
Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ assists Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +14%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1 +$1 +97%
Will Iran Play in the World Cup? Jun 16 $5 $0 +9%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $5 +$2 +32%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $33 −$33 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $46 −$45 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $70 −$70 -100%
Will Kai Havertz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $2 +$1 +42%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2 +$2 +97%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $6 +$2 +28%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $5 +$1 +21%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $2 +$1 +57%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $4 +$3 +79%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $4 +$1 +36%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $5 +$30 +591%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $4 +$1 +31%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $7 +$4 +52%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $6 +$1 +18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 54¢ $90 25m
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery BUY Arthur Fery 64¢ $3 26m
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Ignacio Buse BUY Brandon Nakashima 73¢ $5 6h
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Ekaterina Alexandrova BUY Aryna Sabalenka 82¢ $5 6h
Parma: Marco Cecchinato vs Federico Bondioli BUY Marco Cecchinato 63¢ $5 6h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? AND Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY 45¢ $5 6h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 72¢ $8 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $16 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $16 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $16 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $52 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $15 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $1 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $1 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $16 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $50 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $16 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $16 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $51 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $16 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $16 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $16 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $16 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $10 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $16 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $16 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $10 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $10 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $16 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $16 16h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $408.40 · official $458.41 · 3500 history records