Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T07:56:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
90 0x9078…fb78 sports 48 markets active 0h ago coverage 244d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialistFresh edge
! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$47,995 (+36%) realized +$58,397 · open −$10,402
Gross ROI / mkt +50% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +23% what you keep after slip
Net edge+23%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate51%23W / 22L
Whale WR75%big bets
Drawdown28%max
Avg bet$2,780per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$296est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$1,751now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$50
7 days−$50
14 days−$50
30 days−$50
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% +$32,816
other 2% +$3,773
politics 0% −$364
finance 0% +$1,381
world 0% −$43
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)+35.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
all 45 +50.1% +35.8% 51% 47% +26.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +35.8% 47% +26.7%
10% ← realistic here +22.8% 42% +14.5%
15% +11.0% 42% +3.5%
20% +0.1% 38% -6.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 52% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -100% too few recent
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +50% · $-wt +40% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 75% (≥$2,394) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -6% → late +104% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$3,260 vs −$1,228 · ×2.66 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.78 per $1 lost it wins $2.78
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

244d coverage
Net worth$1,751
Realized+$58,397
Unrealized−$10,402
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses23 / 22
Whale WR (big bets)75%
Est. fees paid−$296
Open positions3
Markets (closed)45 / 48
History coverage244d
Avg bet$2,780
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown28%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 45 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Hanwha Life Esports win MSI 2026? Yes 50¢ 40¢ $1,250 $988 −$262 (-21%)
Will Hanwha Life Esports win MSI 2026? No 50¢ 60¢ $429 $518 +$90 (+21%)
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In Deep Cross Gaming 15¢ $6,732 $205 −$6,527 (-97%)
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In Karmine Corp $4,006 $40 −$3,966 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner Jun 29 $51 −$50 -97%
Will T1 win LoL Worlds 2025? Nov 09 $325 +$2,216 +682%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) Nov 09 $19,000 +$27,535 +145%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Nov 09 $10,500 −$10,500 -100%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Nov 09 $2,959 −$2,959 -100%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Nov 09 $1,390 +$2,343 +169%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Nov 09 $500 −$500 -100%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Nov 02 $865 +$794 +92%
Will a team from LCK (South Korea) win LoL Worlds 2025? Nov 02 $929 +$91 +10%
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports - Game 3 Winner Nov 02 $6,165 +$3,399 +55%
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports (BO5) Nov 02 $34,445 +$2,651 +8%
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports - Game 2 Winner Nov 02 $4,900 +$2,371 +48%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Nov 01 $864 +$360 +42%
Will Gen.G win LoL Worlds 2025? Nov 01 $100 +$203 +203%
Will KT Rolster win LoL Worlds 2025? Nov 01 $80 +$868 +1088%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) Nov 01 $3,612 +$11,224 +311%
Will “The Witcher: Season 4” be the top global Netflix show this week? Nov 01 $45 +$116 +258%
Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2025 World Series? Nov 01 $640 +$480 +75%
Will G2 Esports win LoL Worlds 2025? Oct 31 $30 −$30 -100%
Grokipedia released by October 31? Oct 31 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Oct 31 $944 −$944 -100%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Oct 31 $2,144 −$2,144 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO5) Oct 31 $615 −$615 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 2 Winner Oct 31 $54 +$7 +13%
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 3 Winner Oct 31 $185 −$185 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Top Esports - Game 1 Winner Oct 31 $118 −$118 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Top Esports - Game 3 Winner Oct 31 $360 −$360 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Top Esports (BO5) Oct 31 $7,993 −$7,993 -100%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs T1 (BO5) Oct 31 $7,173 +$11,112 +155%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Oct 31 $511 +$738 +144%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 30 $13 −$13 -100%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by November 7? Oct 30 $43 −$43 -100%
NYC Election: Sliwa drops out and Cuomo wins? Oct 30 $63 −$63 -100%
Will Curtis Sliwa drop out? Oct 30 $65 −$65 -100%
Maduro out in 2025? Oct 30 $125 −$125 -100%
Will Jacob Frey win the 2025 Minneapolis mayoral election? Oct 30 $84 −$84 -100%
Will DeWayne Davis win the 2025 Minneapolis mayoral election? Oct 30 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Jazz Hampton win the 2025 Minneapolis mayoral election? Oct 30 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Meta Platforms (META) beat quarterly earnings? Oct 30 $200 +$1,370 +685%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 29 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Shake Shack (SHAK) beat quarterly earnings? Oct 29 $50 +$10 +20%
LoL: KT Rolster vs CTBC Flying Oyster - Game 3 Winner Oct 29 $4,699 +$2,551 +54%
LoL: KT Rolster vs CTBC Flying Oyster (BO5) Oct 29 $2,452 +$1,577 +64%
LoL: KT Rolster vs CTBC Flying Oyster - Game 2 Winner Oct 29 $2,394 +$1,566 +65%
LoL: KT Rolster vs CTBC Flying Oyster - Game 1 Winner Oct 29 $2,006 +$1,391 +69%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Hanwha Life Esports win MSI 2026? SELL No 61¢ $28 15m
Will Hanwha Life Esports win MSI 2026? SELL No 61¢ $28 15m
Will Hanwha Life Esports win MSI 2026? SELL No 61¢ $37 16m
Will Hanwha Life Esports win MSI 2026? SELL No 61¢ $4 16m
Will Hanwha Life Esports win MSI 2026? SELL No 61¢ $6 16m
Will Hanwha Life Esports win MSI 2026? SELL No 61¢ $9 16m
Will Hanwha Life Esports win MSI 2026? SELL No 61¢ $8 16m
Will Hanwha Life Esports win MSI 2026? SELL No 61¢ $8 16m
Will Hanwha Life Esports win MSI 2026? SELL No 61¢ $29 17m
Will Hanwha Life Esports win MSI 2026? SELL No 61¢ $37 17m
Will Hanwha Life Esports win MSI 2026? SELL No 61¢ $23 17m
Will Hanwha Life Esports win MSI 2026? SELL No 61¢ $12 17m
Will Hanwha Life Esports win MSI 2026? SELL No 61¢ $60 17m
Will Hanwha Life Esports win MSI 2026? SELL No 61¢ $62 17m
Will Hanwha Life Esports win MSI 2026? SELL No 61¢ $7 17m
Will Hanwha Life Esports win MSI 2026? SELL No 61¢ $183 17m
Will Hanwha Life Esports win MSI 2026? SELL No 61¢ $18 17m
Will Hanwha Life Esports win MSI 2026? SELL No 61¢ $5 19m
Will Hanwha Life Esports win MSI 2026? SELL No 61¢ $9 34m
Will Hanwha Life Esports win MSI 2026? SELL No 61¢ $408 34m
Will Hanwha Life Esports win MSI 2026? SELL No 61¢ $9 34m
Will Hanwha Life Esports win MSI 2026? SELL No 61¢ $9 34m
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational BUY Deep Cross Gaming $1,779 1h
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational BUY Deep Cross Gaming 19¢ $5,121 2h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In BUY Karmine Corp $702 3h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In SELL Karmine Corp 13¢ $42 3h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In BUY Karmine Corp $2,667 4h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In BUY Karmine Corp $1 4h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In BUY Karmine Corp $2 4h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In BUY Karmine Corp $1 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,750.83 · official $1,750.83 (match) · 414 history records