Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T00:41:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
90 0x9079…b19b sports 578 markets active 1h ago coverage 29d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Total PnL +$18,633 (+17%) realized −$5,547 · open −$304
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate44%318W / 399L
Whale WR64%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$195per market
Trades / day109.5pace
Fees−$962est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$259now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$18,264
7 days−$18,756
14 days−$15,970
30 days−$5,547
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 64% +$2,698
other 36% +$6,914
world 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 229 -41.8% -47.3% 22% 19% -62.6%
≤30d 717 +0.1% -9.5% 44% 37% -13.0%
≤90d 717 +0.1% -9.5% 44% 37% -13.0%
all 717 +0.1% -9.5% 44% 37% -13.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover109.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.5% 37% -13.0%
10% ← realistic here -18.1% 29% -21.4%
15% -26.0% 22% -29.0%
20% -33.3% 16% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 64% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +22% → late -21% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$100 vs −$94 · ×1.07 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

29d coverage
Net worth$259
Realized−$5,547
Unrealized−$304
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses318 / 399
Whale WR (big bets)64%
Est. fees paid−$962
Open positions3
Markets (closed)717 / 578
History coverage29d
Avg bet$195
Trades / day109.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 717 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox Boston Red Sox 55¢ 42¢ $321 $248 −$73 (-23%)
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers Milwaukee Brewers 49¢ 58¢ $8 $10 +$2 (+19%)
PortlandFire vs. Los Angeles Sparks Los Angeles Sparks 61¢ 100¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+64%)
Will Bud Cauley win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? No 79¢ 0¢ $233 $0 −$233 (-100%)
Minnesota Twins vs. Cleveland Guardians Cleveland Guardians 56¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Los Angeles Angels vs. Toronto Blue Jays Los Angeles Angels 55¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will Fluminense FC win on 2026-05-09? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will Stade Brestois 29 win on 2026-05-17? Yes 31¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers Milwaukee Brewers 36¢ 0¢ $35 $0 −$35 (-100%)
Will Cerezo Ōsaka vs. FC Tōkyō end in a draw? No 73¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Birmingham: Nikola Bartunkova vs Ashlyn Krueger Ashlyn Krueger 25¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-05-17? No 1¢ 0¢ $37 $0 −$37 (-100%)
Hamburg European Open, Qualification: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Zhizhen Zhang Zhizhen Zhang 20¢ 0¢ $22 $0 −$22 (-100%)
Zagreb: Thiago Monteiro vs Andres Andrade Thiago Monteiro 65¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Will San Jose Earthquakes win on 2026-05-13? Yes 59¢ 0¢ $949 $0 −$949 (-100%)
Will Nagoya Grampus win on 2026-05-30? Yes 42¢ 0¢ $161 $0 −$161 (-100%)
Will Austin FC win on 2026-05-23? Yes 16¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Oeiras 4: Billy Harris vs Petr Brunclik Billy Harris 42¢ 0¢ $371 $0 −$371 (-100%)
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Colorado Rockies Arizona Diamondbacks 38¢ 0¢ $82 $0 −$82 (-100%)
Will Club Atlético de Madrid vs. RC Celta de Vigo end in a draw? Yes 31¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-05-17? Yes 14¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Phoenix Mercury vs. Atlanta Dream Phoenix Mercury 6¢ 0¢ $21 $0 −$21 (-100%)
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-05-09? No 36¢ 0¢ $17 $0 −$17 (-100%)
Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals Cincinnati Reds 42¢ 0¢ $34 $0 −$34 (-100%)
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants San Francisco Giants 38¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Minnesota Twins vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 15 $1 −$30 -2908%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 15 $0 $0 -294%
Will Fluminense FC win on 2026-05-09? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Hamburg European Open, Qualification: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Zhizhen Jun 15 $22 −$22 -100%
Zagreb: Thiago Monteiro vs Andres Andrade Jun 15 $13 −$13 -101%
Will San Jose Earthquakes win on 2026-05-13? Jun 15 $949 −$949 -100%
Oeiras 4: Billy Harris vs Petr Brunclik Jun 15 $371 −$371 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 15 $82 −$82 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid vs. RC Celta de Vigo end in a draw? Jun 15 $4 −$9 -253%
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-05-09? Jun 15 $17 +$112 +640%
Will Shimizu S-Pulse win on 2026-05-10? Jun 15 $23 −$23 -100%
Will Gwangju FC vs. Gangwon FC end in a draw? Jun 15 $17 −$18 -105%
Will Sporting Kansas City vs. Los Angeles Galaxy end in a draw? Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Fulham FC win on 2026-05-09? Jun 15 $3 −$14 -444%
San Diego Padres vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 15 $108 −$108 -100%
Will FC Arouca win on 2026-05-11? Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Cordoba: Santiago De La Fuente vs Murkel Dellien Jun 15 $19 −$19 -100%
Zagreb: Jan Choinski vs Arthur Fery Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Will SD Huesca vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol B end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 −$2 -490%
Will Yunnan Yukun FC win on 2026-05-10? Jun 15 $11 +$17 +159%
Will Albacete Balompié win on 2026-05-09? Jun 15 $6 −$37 -669%
Will RB Leipzig win on 2026-05-09? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Ducks Jun 15 $46 −$46 -100%
Will Portland Timbers win on 2026-05-13? Jun 15 $1 −$17 -1223%
Paris: Anastasia Zakharova vs Katie Boulter Jun 15 $9 −$9 -101%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-10? Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Will CF Montréal win on 2026-05-09? Jun 15 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Real Salt Lake win on 2026-05-09? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Incheon United FC win on 2026-05-16? Jun 15 $65 −$65 -100%
Will Clube do Remo win on 2026-05-10? Jun 15 $0 $0 -633%
Will Ulsan HD FC win on 2026-05-10? Jun 15 $1 −$26 -2426%
Will Seattle Sounders FC win on 2026-05-13? Jun 15 $233 −$236 -102%
Will New England Revolution vs. Nashville SC end in a draw? Jun 15 $39 −$39 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Texas Rangers Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Qingdao Hainiu FC win on 2026-05-10? Jun 15 $261 −$261 -100%
Will D.C. United SC win on 2026-05-16? Jun 15 $198 −$198 -100%
Will Shandong Taishan FC win on 2026-05-05? Jun 15 $66 −$66 -100%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-17? Jun 15 $929 −$929 -100%
Brazzaville: Florent Bax vs Calvin Hemery Jun 15 $50 −$55 -108%
Will Girona FC vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol end in a draw? Jun 15 $73 −$73 -100%
Valencia: Adolfo Vallejo vs Jaume Munar Jun 15 $4 −$9 -244%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-09? Jun 15 $930 −$930 -100%
Will FC Mito Holly Hock win on 2026-05-16? Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Paris: Alina Charaeva vs Tamara Korpatsch Jun 15 $14 −$56 -397%
Will Vancouver Whitecaps FC win on 2026-05-09? Jun 15 $32 −$32 -100%
Will Tōkyō Verdy win on 2026-05-13? Jun 15 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Gwangju FC win on 2026-05-12? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Atlanta United FC vs. Los Angeles Galaxy end in a draw? Jun 15 $8 −$8 -89%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-17? Jun 15 $23 −$58 -253%
Will Shimizu S-Pulse vs. Avispa Fukuoka end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 −$40 -3541%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 36¢ $8 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 40¢ $9 1h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL No 81¢ $0 3h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL No 81¢ $506 3h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY No 63¢ $400 3h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 24¢ $79 3h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 24¢ $83 3h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 24¢ $83 3h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 24¢ $166 3h
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 40¢ $39 4h
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 40¢ $39 4h
Modena: Katarzyna Kawa vs Lucia Bronzetti BUY Katarzyna Kawa 52¢ $10 4h
Will Matt Fitzpatrick win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 4h
Will Matt Fitzpatrick win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 4h
Will Matt Fitzpatrick win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? BUY Yes 10¢ $0 4h
Will Jimmy Stanger win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 5h
Will Jackson Suber win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? BUY Yes 35¢ $45 5h
Will Jackson Suber win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? BUY Yes 35¢ $45 5h
Will Jackson Suber win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? BUY Yes 35¢ $45 5h
Will Bud Cauley win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? SELL No 77¢ $160 5h
Will Bud Cauley win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? BUY No 79¢ $165 5h
Will Bud Cauley win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? BUY No 78¢ $23 5h
Will Bud Cauley win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? BUY No 79¢ $23 5h
Will Bud Cauley win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? BUY No 79¢ $165 5h
Will Bud Cauley win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? BUY No 79¢ $23 5h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Cincinnati Reds 31¢ $16 5h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Cincinnati Reds 31¢ $16 5h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Cincinnati Reds 31¢ $16 5h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Cincinnati Reds 57¢ $31 6h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 8¢ $57 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $258.58 · official $257.76 (match) · 3500 history records