Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T08:29:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
90 0x907b…9a59 other 60 markets active 5h ago coverage 586d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$32 (-32%) realized −$32 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -31% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate33%17W / 34L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit48%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7
7 days+$5
14 days+$5
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 37% −$7
politics 25% −$7
sports 20% −$2
world 10% −$7
crypto 7% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-37.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +23.9% +12.1% 47% 47% +16.3%
≤30d 15 +23.9% +12.1% 47% 47% +16.3%
≤90d 15 +23.9% +12.1% 47% 47% +16.3%
all 51 -31.4% -37.9% 33% 29% -38.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -37.9% 29% -38.3%
10% -43.8% 24% -44.2%
15% -49.3% 18% -49.6%
20% -54.2% 16% -54.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 52% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +29% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -31% · $-wt -32% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -49% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.96 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.48 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

586d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized−$32
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses17 / 34
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)51 / 60
History coverage586d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit48%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 51 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Yes 66¢ 66¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Yes 61¢ 62¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Yes 51¢ 50¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 25 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2 +$2 +85%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a Jun 14 $2 +$7 +426%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +57%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 +$3 +276%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +105%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1 +$2 +165%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1 $0 +44%
Will Bayern München win on 2025-10-25? Oct 29 $1 $0 +24%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-10-25? Oct 25 $1 $0 +27%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 25 $2 $0 +7%
Will Brighton win on 2025-10-25? Oct 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Borussia Mönchengladbach win on 2025-10-25? Oct 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by October 31? Oct 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-10-25? Oct 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Dodgers vs. Brewers Oct 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Paul Biya win the Cameroon Presidential Election? Oct 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Israel win on 2025-10-14? Oct 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Latvia win on 2025-10-14? Oct 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will France win on 2025-10-13? Oct 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Wales win on 2025-10-13? Oct 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Northern Ireland win on 2025-10-13? Oct 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Eric Adams endorse Cuomo? Oct 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will George Simion win the Romanian presidential election? May 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Manchester United win on 2025-05-16? May 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Champions League Final: PSG vs. Inter Milan May 16 $1 $0 -2%
Will Manchester United win on 2025-05-11? May 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-05-11? May 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Chan Santokhi be the next president of Suriname after the electio May 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland? May 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Manchester City wins the Premier League? Apr 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Trump say 'crypto' or 'Bitcoin' during the 2025 State of the Unio Apr 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Will AfD win the second most seats in the next German election? Mar 04 $3 $0 +11%
Will Manchester City win the UEFA Champions League? Feb 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Ashley Moody be appointed as the next Florida senator? Feb 06 $2 $0 +17%
Trump ends Gaza war in first 100 days? Jan 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Trump say "god" 4+ times during his inauguration speech? Jan 12 $2 $0 +12%
Will Real Madrid win La Liga? Dec 02 $2 +$2 +78%
Will Leicester win on 2024-11-10? Nov 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Trump wins every swing state? Nov 10 $3 +$1 +32%
Will Brighton win on 2024-11-09? Nov 10 $2 +$7 +335%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY 22¢ $1 4h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 51¢ $1 4h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 61¢ $1 4h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $1 4h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 94¢ $3 5h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY 20¢ $1 23h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY 8¢ $2 23h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY 25¢ $2 23h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $1 23h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 50¢ $2 23h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $2 23h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 6¢ $1 23h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 23h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a BUY 19¢ $2 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-1 BUY 53¢ $1 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $1 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $1 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $1 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $1 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? AND Will United States win on 2026-06-1 BUY 27¢ $2 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $1 3d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $1 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 37¢ $1 4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $1 4d
Will Liverpool win on 2025-10-25? SELL No 61¢ $1 232d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? SELL Yes 94¢ $2 232d
Will Liverpool win on 2025-10-25? BUY No 48¢ $1 232d
Will Brighton win on 2025-10-25? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 232d
Will Bayern München win on 2025-10-25? BUY Yes 81¢ $1 232d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.91 · official $4.91 · 88 history records