Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T10:44:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
90 0x907c…23c1 sports 1051 markets active 1h ago coverage 252d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,613 (-5%) realized −$1,631 · open +$18
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate31%313W / 711L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day10.2pace
Fees−$34est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$505now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$8
14 days−$122
30 days−$337
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 30% −$681
world 19% −$272
finance 18% −$318
politics 10% −$112
sports 9% −$34
culture 4% −$18
tech 3% −$63
crypto 3% −$202
weather 3% −$52
economics 0% +$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-18.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +2.1% -7.6% 27% 13% -10.3%
≤30d 189 -5.8% -14.8% 33% 26% -13.4%
≤90d 537 -6.0% -14.9% 25% 18% -14.1%
all 1024 -10.2% -18.8% 31% 23% -14.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.8% 23% -14.9%
10% -26.5% 21% -23.1%
15% -33.6% 19% -30.5%
20% -40.1% 15% -37.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$5 · ×0.98 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.45 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

252d coverage
Net worth$505
Realized−$1,631
Unrealized+$18
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses313 / 711
Est. fees paid−$34
Open positions25
Markets (closed)1024 / 1051
History coverage252d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day10.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 25 History 1024 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election? No 58¢ 58¢ $87 $88 +$1 (+1%)
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? Yes 31¢ 38¢ $47 $56 +$9 (+20%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $32 $37 +$5 (+15%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $32 $27 −$5 (-15%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 5¢ 26¢ $5 $25 +$20 (+395%)
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 59¢ 66¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+12%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 88¢ 98¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+11%)
Will Anthropic have the best Coding AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 89¢ 96¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+8%)
Will XRP dip to $1.00 by December 31, 2026? Yes 80¢ 84¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+4%)
Will France reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 58¢ 60¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+4%)
Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? No 69¢ 68¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Will the announcers say "Ankle" during the Mexico vs South Korea FIFA World Cup Match? No 69¢ 94¢ $14 $19 +$5 (+37%)
Will Spain reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 61¢ 56¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-9%)
Will Portugal reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 52¢ 44¢ $20 $17 −$3 (-16%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $19 $15 −$4 (-22%)
Will Morocco reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 23¢ 29¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+26%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 19? Yes 25¢ 12¢ $25 $12 −$14 (-54%)
Will Morocco reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 45¢ 52¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+14%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? Yes 6¢ 8¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+42%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+14%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? Yes 39¢ 29¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-26%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Yes 9¢ 4¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-53%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+7%)
Hantavirus lab leak confirmed by June 30? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-93%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 252 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the announcers say "History" during the Brazil vs Haiti FIFA Worl Jun 19 $32 $0 -1%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Bogotá in the second round Jun 19 $63 −$4 -7%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Micah Lasher be the democratic nominee for NY-12? Jun 17 $64 −$2 -3%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? Jun 17 $72 +$3 +4%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $83 −$2 -3%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A Jun 17 $15 +$23 +152%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 16 $0 $0 +16%
Will the announcers say "Goal" 20+ times during the England vs Croatia Jun 16 $39 −$1 -4%
SpaceX IPO: Closing Share Price Up/Down on Second Day? Jun 15 $53 −$2 -4%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.40 in June? Jun 15 $126 −$8 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 11°C on June 14? Jun 14 $49 −$2 -5%
Will Germany go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Jun 13 $34 −$2 -5%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 13 $150 +$3 +2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 13 $167 −$8 -5%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $51 −$8 -16%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $88 −$20 -22%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 12 $38 −$2 -5%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? Jun 12 $60 −$5 -8%
Stuttgart Open: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Alexander Bublik Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Libema Open: Benjamin Bonzi vs Alex de Minaur Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $44 −$13 -29%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 11 $121 −$1 -1%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $63 −$2 -3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 10 $300 $0 +0%
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut Jun 10 $33 −$6 -19%
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut Jun 10 $46 −$2 -4%
Will Paper Rex win Valorant Masters London 2026? Jun 10 $75 −$2 -3%
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut Jun 09 $10 −$3 -32%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $3.00 in June? Jun 09 $120 −$1 -1%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 08 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? Jun 07 $141 +$3 +2%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,200 in June? Jun 07 $56 −$1 -2%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $86 −$1 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 06 $372 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $161 −$1 -1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 06 $10 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026? Jun 06 $177 −$19 -11%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in June? Jun 06 $21 +$11 +55%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 5? Jun 05 $79 −$4 -5%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 5? Jun 05 $52 −$4 -8%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 5? Jun 05 $85 +$5 +6%
Makarska: Elina Avanesyan vs Dominika Salkova Jun 04 $10 +$10 +97%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in June? Jun 04 $34 −$1 -4%
Birmingham: Alexandra Eala vs Alina Charaeva Jun 04 $10 +$4 +36%
Will SpaceX have the highest private market valuation on June 30? Jun 04 $20 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jun 04 $20 $0 -1%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 4? Jun 04 $36 −$2 -5%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 4? Jun 04 $104 −$5 -5%
Makarska: Maria Timofeeva vs Erika Andreeva Jun 04 $10 −$10 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the BUY No 58¢ $87 41m
Will the announcers say "History" during the Brazil vs Haiti FIFA Worl SELL Yes 81¢ $32 2h
Will the announcers say "History" during the Brazil vs Haiti FIFA Worl BUY Yes 81¢ $3 2h
Will the announcers say "History" during the Brazil vs Haiti FIFA Worl BUY Yes 81¢ $8 2h
Will the announcers say "History" during the Brazil vs Haiti FIFA Worl BUY Yes 81¢ $13 2h
Will the announcers say "History" during the Brazil vs Haiti FIFA Worl BUY Yes 81¢ $4 2h
Will the announcers say "History" during the Brazil vs Haiti FIFA Worl BUY Yes 81¢ $4 2h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Bogotá in the second round SELL No 40¢ $59 3h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Bogotá in the second round BUY No 42¢ $63 4h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 19? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 5h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 19? BUY Yes 25¢ $4 5h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 19? BUY Yes 25¢ $16 5h
Will the announcers say "Ankle" during the Mexico vs South Korea FIFA BUY No 69¢ $14 29h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 39h
Will Micah Lasher be the democratic nominee for NY-12? SELL Yes 63¢ $62 41h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 AND Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams t BUY 25¢ $10 42h
Will Micah Lasher be the democratic nominee for NY-12? BUY Yes 64¢ $64 42h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? SELL No 76¢ $75 42h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? BUY No 72¢ $72 2d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 17? SELL Down 66¢ $3 2d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 68¢ $3 2d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 17? SELL Down 67¢ $78 2d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 68¢ $80 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A BUY 39¢ $15 2d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju SELL Yes 35¢ $0 3d
Will the announcers say "Goal" 20+ times during the England vs Croatia SELL Yes 64¢ $38 3d
Will the announcers say "Goal" 20+ times during the England vs Croatia BUY Yes 65¢ $39 3d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju BUY Yes 29¢ $0 3d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY 37¢ $10 3d
SpaceX IPO: Closing Share Price Up/Down on Second Day? SELL Down 52¢ $51 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $504.76 · official $504.76 (match) · 2975 history records