Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T12:45:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

90
0x907d…20c4
politics · 203 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$215 +54%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$3 · open −$22
avoidriskycopy
✓ COPY-WORTHY politics specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$423
Realized+$3
Unrealized−$22
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses35 / 21
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions295
Markets (closed)56 / 203
History coverage6d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day537.5
Drawdown99%
Kalshi-fit82%
Chart Positions 295 History 56 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$63
7 days+$3
14 days+$3
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $38 $57 +$19 (+50%)
Will Anthropic’s market cap be between $400B and $600B at market close on IPO day? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $12 $19 +$6 (+50%)
Will Elaine Culotti win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $34 $17 −$17 (-50%)
Will James Cleverly be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $27 $14 −$14 (-50%)
Will Amazon have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $8 $13 +$4 (+50%)
Will Jensen Huang be 2nd richest person on December 31? Yes 0¢ 4¢ $0 $9 +$9 (+1825%)
Will Robert Jenrick be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $19 $9 −$9 (-50%)
Will Rand Paul be confirmed to be the sender of the “I beat Bush” email to Epstein in 2026? Yes 0¢ 5¢ $0 $9 +$9 (+2575%)
Will Microsoft have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $8 +$3 (+50%)
Will Meituan have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $8 +$3 (+50%)
Will Databricks’ market cap be $250B or greater at market close on IPO day? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $9 $8 −$1 (-14%)
Will Lucy Powell be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+50%)
Will Meituan have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+50%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $10,000 by end of June? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $13 $7 −$7 (-50%)
Will Stripe’s market cap be $140B or greater at market close on IPO day? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $3 $6 +$3 (+100%)
Will Warren Buffett be 2nd richest person on December 31? Yes 0¢ 7¢ $0 $6 +$6 (+3200%)
Will Chi Ossé win the 2026 New York 8th District Democratic Primary? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $6 +$4 (+300%)
Will Moonshot have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $4 $6 +$2 (+50%)
Will Databricks’ market cap be between $175B and $200B at market close on IPO day? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+21%)
Will Ed Davey be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-50%)
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Belarus? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+50%)
Bank of England increases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2026 meeting? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+50%)
Will Monica Rodriguez win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $9 $4 −$4 (-50%)
Will Boris Johnson be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $8 $4 −$4 (-50%)
Will Mistral have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $4 +$1 (+50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Darren Helton receive the most votes in the CA-11 primary? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will May be the best month for Bitcoin in 2026? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Javen Allen advance from the 2026 California Governor primary ele Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the Rebuilding Korea Party (RKP) win the most seats in South Kore Jun 12 $14 −$15 -110%
Will the Bank of Canada announce a 50+ bps decrease at the June meetin Jun 12 $2 −$1 -41%
Will the People Power Party (PPP) win the most seats in South Korea’s Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the Reform Party (RP) win the most seats in South Korea’s 2026 pa Jun 12 $26 −$27 -102%
Will Cole Bettles receive the most votes in the CA-11 primary? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the Progressive Party (PP) win the most seats in South Korea’s 20 Jun 12 $11 −$11 -99%
Will Thomas Murphy be the Republican nominee for Senate in South Carol Jun 12 $0 +$1 +183%
Will Jingchao Xiong receive the most votes in the CA-11 primary? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will "Michael" be the April film with the highest domestic gross on Ma Jun 12 $0 +$1 +1343%
Will Tesla deliver less than 300000 vehicles in Q2 2026 Jun 12 $0 $0 +1395%
XRP all time high by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $3 +$2 +50%
Will OpenAI IPO by June 30 2026? Jun 12 $1 +$1 +104%
Will Connor McDavid win the 2025–2026 NHL Hart Memorial Trophy? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -44%
Will Anthropic’s market cap be between $300B and $400B at market close Jun 11 $1 $0 +50%
Bank of Japan decreases interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? Jun 11 $4 $0 +1%
Will PT win the most seats in the 2025 Guinea-Bissau National People’s Jun 11 $0 $0 +371%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $900B and $1T at market close on I Jun 10 $9 +$3 +29%
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 10 $3 $0 -4%
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026 Jun 10 $7 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu enter Iran by June 30? Jun 10 $1 +$1 +56%
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 275M by June 5? Jun 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin all time high by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $99 $0 +0%
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 10 $1 $0 +38%
Will Microsoft acquire TikTok? Jun 10 $0 +$1 +400%
Macron out by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $2 $0 +0%
Will Mark Lynch be the Republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina Jun 10 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Paul Dans be the Republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina? Jun 10 $21 −$21 -102%
Harris Dickinson announced as next James Bond? Jun 09 $2 +$2 +132%
Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on IPO day Jun 09 $0 $0 +100%
Will there be exactly 7 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwi Jun 09 $3 −$1 -31%
Will Olivia Rodrigo release an album in 2026? Jun 08 $5 $0 +0%
Will Jerry Demings be the Democratic nominee for Florida Governor? Jun 08 $0 $0 +100%
Henry Cavill announced as next James Bond? Jun 08 $0 $0 +50%
Josh O'Connor announced as next James Bond? Jun 08 $1 +$2 +343%
Will Databricks’ market cap be between $150B and $175B at market close Jun 08 $4 $0 -0%
Will the Bank of Israel increase the Bank of Israel Interest Rate afte Jun 07 $0 +$6 +2158%
Jacob Elordi announced as next James Bond? Jun 07 $1 +$1 +68%
Will Kelda Roys win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary ele Jun 07 $0 $0 +123%
Will Armenia Alliance win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National Jun 07 $1 $0 -0%
Will Taylor Darling be the Democratic nominee for NY-04? Jun 07 $0 $0 +100%
Will HSBC fail by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $1 $0 +33%
Aaron Taylor-Johnson announced as next James Bond? Jun 06 $1 $0 +33%
Will US withdraw from NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $3 $0 +0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,500 by end of June? Jun 06 $3 +$2 +55%
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027? Jun 06 $7 +$77 +1133%
Will Alexis Solis be the Democratic nominee for MD-05? Jun 06 $0 $0 +3078%
Will Ellis Colvin be the Democratic nominee for MD-05? Jun 06 $0 $0 +2856%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 51% −$26
crypto 16% +$2
politics 15% −$22
tech 12% +$11
world 2% +$77
economics 2% +$10
finance 1% −$4
culture 1% $0
sports 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Christopher Bouchat win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican pri BUY Yes 0¢ $0 5m
Will Kurt Wedekind win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary e BUY Yes 0¢ $0 5m
Will Carl Brunner win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary el BUY Yes 0¢ $0 5m
Will Christopher Bouchat win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican pri BUY Yes 0¢ $0 5m
Will Carl Brunner win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary el BUY Yes 0¢ $0 5m
Will Kurt Wedekind win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary e BUY Yes 0¢ $0 5m
Will the Bank of Korea decrease the base rate after the July Meeting? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 31m
Will Anthropic’s market cap be between $400B and $600B at market close BUY Yes 0¢ $0 33m
Will Meituan have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Tesla deliver less than 300000 vehicles in Q2 2026 SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Tesla deliver less than 300000 vehicles in Q2 2026 SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
XRP all time high by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
XRP all time high by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 1h
Will Fannie Mae’s market cap be less than $200B at market close on IPO SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Fannie Mae’s market cap be between $350B and $400B at market clos BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Databricks’ market cap be between $100B and $125B at market close SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Mark Stewart Greenstein be the Democratic nominee for CT-01? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Stripe’s market cap be $140B or greater at market close on IPO da BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Solana all time high by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Discord’s market cap be $30B or greater at market close on IPO da SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Discord’s market cap be $30B or greater at market close on IPO da SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Tom Hardy announced as next James Bond? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Anthropic’s market cap be between $400B and $600B at market close SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Tesla deliver less than 300000 vehicles in Q2 2026 BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Republican House incumbents not win in between thirteen and fifte BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Charlotte O’Hara win the 2026 Kansas Governor Republican primary BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Epstein or Maxwell confirmed Mossad operatives by June 30? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will China GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 5.8% and 6.1%? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Meta have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Bank of England increases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2026 me BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)+313.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 56 +356.9% +313.4% 62% 57% -8.1%
≤30d 56 +356.9% +313.4% 62% 57% -8.1%
≤90d 56 +356.9% +313.4% 62% 57% -8.1%
all 56 +356.9% +313.4% 62% 57% -8.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover537.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +313.4% 57% -8.1%
10% ← realistic here +273.8% 57% -16.9%
15% +237.7% 52% -24.9%
20% +204.6% 45% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $422.54 · official $422.67 (match) · 3500 history records