Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T18:10:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
90 0x907e…6bdb crypto 141 markets active 0h ago coverage 27d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$19 (-0%) realized −$19 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate71%100W / 41L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day7.3pace
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$45
7 days+$45
14 days+$45
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$4
other 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-19.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 90 +0.8% -8.8% 86% 27% -8.5%
≤30d 141 -10.9% -19.4% 71% 25% -9.6%
≤90d 141 -10.9% -19.4% 71% 25% -9.6%
all 141 -10.9% -19.4% 71% 25% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.4% 25% -9.6%
10% -27.1% 15% -18.3%
15% -34.1% 10% -26.2%
20% -40.6% 6% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
63% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -23% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$6 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

27d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$19
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses100 / 41
Open positions0
Markets (closed)141 / 141
History coverage27d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day7.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 141 Trades
no open positions (24 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 15 $60 +$5 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 15 $100 +$4 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 15 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 15 $50 +$2 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $50 +$4 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 15 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 15 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 15 $50 +$4 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $111 −$3 -3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $101 +$9 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 15 $50 +$1 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$6 +55%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 15 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $50 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 15 $81 +$12 +15%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 15 $91 −$2 -2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 15 $100 +$6 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 15 $48 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 15 $100 +$6 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $101 +$9 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 15 $100 +$6 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $101 +$12 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$7 +70%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 15 $100 +$1 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 15 $101 +$13 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 15 $100 +$3 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 15 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 15 $101 +$13 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 15 $100 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$4 +44%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 15 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 15 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $100 +$7 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$5 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 15 $105 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$2 +22%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$4 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$4 +42%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 15 $20 +$3 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $50 6m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $10 8m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $50 11m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $50 12m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $50 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $50 21m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $50 26m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $50 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $50 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $50 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $20 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $50 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $21 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $21 59m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $50 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $50 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $10 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $50 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $81 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $81 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $10 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $101 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $100 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $48 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $100 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $101 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $100 7h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $101 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 326 history records