Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T04:43:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
90 0x907f…b982 crypto 15 markets active 2h ago coverage 234d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate92%12W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$96per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$88now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 88% −$34
other 12% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-16.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.4% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 1 +0.4% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 3 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 13 -7.5% -16.3% 92% 0% -11.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.3% 0% -11.7%
10% -24.3% 0% -20.2%
15% -31.6% 0% -27.9%
20% -38.3% 0% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 67% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -14% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$35 · ×0.0 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.05 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

234d coverage
Net worth$88
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)92%
Wins / losses12 / 1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)13 / 15
History coverage234d
Avg bet$96
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $47 $47 −$0 (-0%)
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $41 $41 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? Jun 22 $40 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in April? May 06 $88 $0 +0%
EdgeX FDV above $10B one day after launch? Apr 29 $53 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? Mar 11 $35 −$35 -100%
Will Opinion launch a token by December 31, 2026? Mar 11 $88 $0 +0%
Infinex FDV above $3B one day after launch? Feb 27 $28 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,600 in January? Feb 27 $60 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $17,000 by December 31? Jan 31 $11 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 31 $11 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $14,000 by December 31? Jan 31 $12 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 31 $12 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 in November? Jan 31 $15 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90k in October? Nov 07 $900 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $41 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $47 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $40 46d
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $88 54d
EdgeX FDV above $10B one day after launch? BUY No 100¢ $53 83d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $35 102d
Will Opinion launch a token by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $88 114d
Infinex FDV above $3B one day after launch? BUY No 100¢ $28 141d
Will Ethereum reach $4,600 in January? BUY No 100¢ $60 141d
Will Ethereum hit $14,000 by December 31? BUY No 100¢ $12 184d
Will Ethereum hit $17,000 by December 31? BUY No 100¢ $11 184d
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? BUY No 100¢ $12 184d
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? BUY No 100¢ $11 184d
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 in November? BUY No 99¢ $15 227d
Will Bitcoin dip to $90k in October? BUY No 100¢ $900 234d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $87.78 · official $87.78 (match) · 27 history records