Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T09:46:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
90 0x9081…aeee other 230 markets active 0h ago coverage 130d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$64 (-0%) realized −$64 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate5%12W / 217L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$219per market
Trades / day9.8pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$54now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$22
14 days−$31
30 days−$41
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% −$34
sports 22% −$21
culture 9% −$8
politics 8% −$6
economics 5% −$4
crypto 4% $0
world 3% −$3
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 74 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 176 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
all 229 -0.1% -9.7% 5% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 60% · top 2 86% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.87 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.11 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

130d coverage
Net worth$54
Realized−$64
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses12 / 217
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions1
Markets (closed)229 / 230
History coverage130d
Avg bet$219
Trades / day9.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 229 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? No 98¢ 98¢ $54 $54 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 20 $90 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 20 $342 −$1 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 20 $444 −$1 -0%
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 19 $205 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 19 $550 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 19 $54 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 19 $140 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 19 $295 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 19 $117 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $612 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 19 $139 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $482 −$1 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 18 $263 −$1 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 18 $443 −$1 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 18 $275 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 18 $420 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $484 −$1 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 17 $470 −$1 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 17 $275 −$1 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $687 −$1 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $211 −$1 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $124 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 17 $317 $0 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $137 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $529 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $641 −$1 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 16 $428 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $57 $0 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 15 $429 −$1 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 15 $660 −$1 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $472 −$1 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $119 −$1 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $327 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $376 −$1 -0%
Will Philadelphia Union win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 13 $429 −$1 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $307 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $740 −$1 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $136 $0 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $59 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 12 $270 $0 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 12 $205 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $142 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $606 −$1 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $442 −$1 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $262 −$1 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 09 $185 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 09 $528 −$1 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $222 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $308 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $556 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $54 2m
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $24 48m
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $24 2h
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $54 4h
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $54 5h
Xi Jinping out by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $54 6h
Xi Jinping out by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $54 7h
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 98¢ $54 10h
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 98¢ $54 11h
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $54 13h
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $54 14h
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $16 14h
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $38 15h
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $54 17h
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $54 19h
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $54 21h
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 100¢ $54 22h
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $55 24h
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $55 25h
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $55 26h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $55 28h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $55 29h
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $55 32h
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $55 34h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $55 34h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $55 36h
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $55 37h
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $55 39h
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 98¢ $43 39h
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 98¢ $12 40h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $53.60 · official $53.60 (match) · 1338 history records