Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T20:36:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
90 0x9083…d27b sports 230 markets active 1h ago coverage 519d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$2,242 (+8%) realized +$3,212 · open −$970
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate44%94W / 121L
Whale WR91%big bets
Drawdown65%max
Avg bet$117per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$52est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$2,021now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$17
7 days+$2
14 days−$285
30 days−$158
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 49% +$829
crypto 21% −$758
other 16% +$1,601
politics 5% +$366
world 5% −$71
tech 4% +$220
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-19.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -5.7% -14.7% 50% 50% -8.5%
≤30d 33 -17.6% -25.5% 48% 42% -15.4%
≤90d 105 -14.6% -22.8% 37% 31% -8.8%
all 215 -10.8% -19.3% 44% 36% +2.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.3% 36% +2.4%
10% -27.0% 32% -7.4%
15% -34.1% 27% -16.3%
20% -40.5% 25% -24.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt +13% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 91% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -8% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$86 vs −$41 · ×2.11 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.64 per $1 lost it wins $1.64
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

519d coverage
Net worth$2,021
Realized+$3,212
Unrealized−$970
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses94 / 121
Whale WR (big bets)91%
Est. fees paid−$52
Open positions15
Markets (closed)215 / 230
History coverage519d
Avg bet$117
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown65%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 215 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? No 77¢ 58¢ $1,427 $1,082 −$345 (-24%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? No 68¢ 32¢ $750 $358 −$392 (-52%)
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 58¢ 26¢ $290 $132 −$157 (-54%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? No 90¢ 90¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $47 $67 +$20 (+42%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $64 $64 +$1 (+1%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 71¢ 64¢ $65 $59 −$6 (-10%)
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes $49 $39 −$9 (-19%)
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $30 $38 +$8 (+25%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $38 $23 −$15 (-39%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $32 $18 −$14 (-44%)
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $20 $10 −$10 (-50%)
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $40 $10 −$30 (-75%)
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $20 $10 −$10 (-50%)
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $20 $10 −$10 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC Fight Night: Ion Cutelaba vs. Navajo Stirling (Light Heavyweight, Jun 21 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $51 +$32 +63%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $30 +$35 +114%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $70 +$20 +29%
LoL: G2 NORD vs Galions (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group C Jun 11 $51 −$50 -99%
LoL: G2 NORD vs Partizan Sangal (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group C Jun 10 $50 +$1 +2%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 10 $245 −$245 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 10 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: Karmine Corp Blue vs Verdant (BO3) - EMEA Masters Play-In Jun 09 $3 −$3 -97%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 07 $20 +$10 +50%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $20 −$20 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Bryce Mitchell vs. Santiago Luna (Bantamweight, Main Jun 07 $41 −$40 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Marcus McGhee vs. John Yannis (Bantamweight, Prelims) Jun 06 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 IIHF World Championship? May 31 $51 −$50 -99%
World Championships: Canada vs. Finland May 30 $233 +$27 +11%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $506 +$153 +30%
UFC Fight Night: Alex Perez vs. Sumudaerji (Flyweight, Main Card) May 30 $20 $0 -2%
UFC Fight Night: Alonzo Menifield vs. Zhang Mingyang (Light Heavyweigh May 30 $47 +$83 +176%
UFC Fight Night: Song Yadong vs. Deiveson Figueiredo (Bantamweight, Ma May 30 $31 −$30 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Luis Felipe Dias vs. Yi Sak Lee (Middleweight, Prelim May 30 $51 +$28 +55%
UFC Fight Night: Ding Meng vs. Jose Henrique (Welterweight, Prelims) May 30 $76 +$42 +56%
UFC Fight Night: Kai Asakura vs. Cameron Smotherman (Bantamweight, Mai May 30 $20 −$20 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Jake Matthews vs. Carlston Harris (Welterweight, Main May 30 $15 −$15 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Angela Hill vs. Jingnan Xiong (Women's Strawweight, P May 30 $32 +$18 +56%
UFC Fight Night: Loma Lookboonmee vs. Jaqueline Amorim (Women's Straww May 30 $30 +$21 +70%
UFC Fight Night: Rodrigo Vera vs. Zhu Kangjie (Featherweight, Prelims) May 30 $30 +$30 +97%
World Championships: Norway vs. Latvia May 28 $30 +$26 +86%
World Championships: Switzerland vs. Sweden May 28 $132 −$130 -99%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 28 $42 +$1 +2%
World Championships: Finland vs. Czechia May 28 $25 −$25 -100%
World Championships: Czechia vs. Norway May 25 $245 −$7 -3%
World Championships: Slovakia vs. Czechia May 23 $140 +$35 +25%
UFC Fight Night: Bernardo Sopaj vs. Timmy Cuamba (Bantamweight, Main C May 17 $69 +$41 +60%
UFC Fight Night: Tuco Tokkos vs. Ivan Erslan (Light Heavyweight, Preli May 17 $121 +$60 +49%
UFC Fight Night: Ketlen Vieira vs. Jacqueline Cavalcanti (Women's Bant May 17 $239 +$1 +0%
UFC Fight Night: Tommy Gantt vs. Artur Minev (Lightweight, Prelims) May 17 $102 +$52 +51%
UFC Fight Night: Modestas Bukauskas vs. Christian Edwards (Light Heavy May 17 $20 −$20 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Alice Ardelean vs. Polyana Viana (Women's Strawweight May 17 $40 +$24 +60%
UFC Fight Night: Nicolle Caliari vs. Shauna Bannon (Women's Strawweigh May 16 $34 −$33 -98%
Will AC Sparta Praha win on 2026-05-09? May 12 $121 +$1,929 +1594%
UFC Fight Night: Shamil Gaziev vs. Brando Pericic (Heavyweight, Prelim May 12 $20 −$20 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Tim Elliott vs. Steve Erceg (Flyweight, Main Card) May 12 $20 −$20 -100%
UFC 328: Pat Sabatini vs. William Gomis (Featherweight, Early Prelims) May 12 $171 −$10 -6%
UFC 327: Kevin Holland vs. Randy Brown (Welterweight, Prelims) May 12 $25 −$25 -100%
UFC 327: Johnny Walker vs. Dominick Reyes (Light Heavyweight, Main Car May 12 $20 −$20 -100%
UFC 327: Patricio Pitbull vs. Aaron Pico (Featherweight, Prelims) May 12 $20 −$20 -100%
UFC 327: Curtis Blaydes vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) May 12 $40 −$40 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Beneil Dariush vs. Quillan Salkilld (Lightweight, Mai May 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? May 12 $100 −$100 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 71¢ $35 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 90¢ $100 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $30 1h
UFC Fight Night: Ion Cutelaba vs. Navajo Stirling (Light Heavyweight, BUY Ion Cutelaba 23¢ $15 19h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 60¢ $20 24h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 61¢ $30 24h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 46¢ $30 5d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 65¢ $51 6d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $38 6d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 77¢ $30 7d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 77¢ $40 7d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $32 10d
LoL: G2 NORD vs Galions (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group C BUY G2 NORD 58¢ $10 10d
LoL: G2 NORD vs Galions (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group C BUY G2 NORD 58¢ $10 10d
LoL: G2 NORD vs Galions (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group C BUY G2 NORD 58¢ $10 10d
LoL: G2 NORD vs Galions (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group C BUY G2 NORD 49¢ $20 10d
LoL: G2 NORD vs Partizan Sangal (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group C BUY G2 NORD 98¢ $50 11d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 49¢ $245 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 11d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $40 11d
LoL: Karmine Corp Blue vs Verdant (BO3) - EMEA Masters Play-In BUY Verdant $3 12d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $47 13d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $30 13d
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs SELL Karmine Corp 42¢ $31 14d
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs BUY Karmine Corp 27¢ $20 14d
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY MIBR 32¢ $20 14d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $20 14d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $21 14d
UFC Fight Night: Bryce Mitchell vs. Santiago Luna (Bantamweight, Main BUY Santiago Luna 46¢ $41 14d
UFC Fight Night: Marcus McGhee vs. John Yannis (Bantamweight, Prelims) BUY John Yannis 22¢ $10 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,020.81 · official $2,020.77 (match) · 876 history records