Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T20:27:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
90 0x9083…8d48 crypto 26 markets active 2h ago coverage 75d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$268 (-18%) realized −$265 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate40%10W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$57per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$41now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$100
30 days−$82
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 69% −$190
crypto 19% −$79
politics 6% +$37
other 3% −$3
sports 3% −$40
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-34.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 -41.1% -46.7% 50% 50% -46.7%
≤90d 25 -27.6% -34.5% 40% 28% -26.5%
all 25 -27.6% -34.5% 40% 28% -26.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -34.5% 28% -26.5%
10% -40.8% 24% -33.5%
15% -46.5% 24% -40.0%
20% -51.7% 20% -45.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 57% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -28% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -27% → late -29% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$25 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.27 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

75d coverage
Net worth$41
Realized−$265
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses10 / 15
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)25 / 26
History coverage75d
Avg bet$57
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 25 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 70¢ 66¢ $44 $41 −$3 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 08 $100 −$100 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 07 $100 +$18 +18%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? May 05 $90 +$37 +40%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 11 $551 −$100 -18%
Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on April 10, 202 Apr 10 $83 +$8 +9%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026? Apr 09 $100 −$18 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Apr 09 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Apr 09 $30 +$22 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Apr 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Apr 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Apr 09 $5 +$6 +123%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Apr 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Apr 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Apr 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Apr 09 $5 +$3 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Apr 09 $5 +$3 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Apr 09 $10 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Apr 09 $5 +$3 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Apr 09 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Apr 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Apr 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Apr 09 $104 $0 -0%
Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on April 9, 2026? Apr 09 $100 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Apr 08 $76 −$76 -100%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? Apr 07 $40 −$40 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $44 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? BUY Yes 75¢ $100 13d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? SELL Yes 66¢ $118 14d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 56¢ $100 14d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? SELL Yes 100¢ $127 47d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? BUY Yes 71¢ $90 71d
Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on April 10, 202 BUY Yes 91¢ $83 72d
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026? SELL Yes 39¢ $82 72d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $3 72d
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026? BUY Yes 50¢ $50 73d
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026? BUY Yes 46¢ $50 73d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $20 73d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $10 73d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 73d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $5 73d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $5 73d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 73d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $5 73d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $5 73d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $5 73d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $5 73d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET SELL Down 69¢ $10 73d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $10 73d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $5 73d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET SELL Up 100¢ $5 73d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 73d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 73d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $1 73d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET SELL Down 94¢ $103 73d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $104 73d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $41.17 · official $41.80 (match) · 77 history records