Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T22:52:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
90 0x9085…436f other 85 markets active 2h ago coverage 417d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this
Total PnL +$810 (+8%) realized +$826 · open −$16
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +33% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +20% what you keep after slip
Net edge+20%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%39W / 39L
Drawdown98%max
Avg bet$112per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$784now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$391
7 days+$335
14 days+$421
30 days+$421
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% +$156
politics 28% +$179
sports 21% +$368
world 1% −$6
crypto 1% +$97
culture 0% −$12
economics 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+20.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 +8.4% -1.9% 54% 54% +0.1%
≤30d 28 +15.2% +4.2% 57% 57% +2.1%
≤90d 45 +52.8% +38.2% 44% 44% -3.2%
all 78 +33.2% +20.5% 50% 50% -1.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +20.5% 50% -1.5%
10% +9.0% 50% -11.0%
15% -1.6% 50% -19.6%
20% -11.2% 41% -27.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +33% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +62% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$92 vs −$72 · ×1.28 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.28 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

417d coverage
Net worth$784
Realized+$826
Unrealized−$16
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses39 / 39
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions7
Markets (closed)78 / 85
History coverage417d
Avg bet$112
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown98%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 78 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $200 $199 −$1 (-0%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Yes 60¢ 64¢ $100 $106 +$6 (+6%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Yes 81¢ 81¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 69¢ 68¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $100 $81 −$19 (-19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $101 +$63 +62%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 19 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $264 +$253 +96%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $101 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $101 +$57 +57%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $101 +$38 +38%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $152 +$111 +73%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 +$38 +38%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $202 +$86 +43%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $202 +$93 +46%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $203 +$185 +91%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $202 −$202 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $101 +$95 +93%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 +$42 +414%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $51 +$55 +108%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $304 −$304 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $303 +$170 +56%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $102 +$107 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $152 −$152 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $101 +$44 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 07 $26 +$43 +163%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET May 12 $14 +$38 +266%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET May 12 $11 +$42 +398%
Will Sinners win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? May 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET May 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET May 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Will "Epstein" be said at the Oscars? May 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Leonardo DiCaprio win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? May 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET May 11 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET May 11 $11 −$11 -100%
Oilers vs. Capitals May 11 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy before July? May 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the Government shutdown end November 16 or later? May 11 $100 −$100 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? May 11 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 14, 2026? May 11 $10 −$9 -95%
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 15, 2026? May 11 $10 −$9 -86%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? Apr 08 $10 +$57 +567%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 08 $1 +$37 +3734%
Penguins vs. Avalanche Mar 18 $5 +$9 +186%
Lakers vs. Rockets Mar 18 $30 +$29 +96%
Heat vs. Hornets Mar 18 $30 +$18 +61%
Jazz vs. Kings Mar 16 $50 +$31 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Mar 15 $10 +$13 +128%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $164 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $517 19h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 6¢ $21 24h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 78¢ $101 24h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 81¢ $101 26h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 62¢ $101 26h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $101 26h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $159 26h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 77¢ $101 44h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $101 44h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $263 2d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $205 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $101 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $101 3d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $101 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $101 3d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $388 3d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 51¢ $203 3d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 45¢ $102 3d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $101 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 71¢ $101 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $101 4d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $202 4d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 61¢ $101 5d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $101 5d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $473 5d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $202 5d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 6d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 60¢ $101 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $784.47 · official $784.48 (match) · 197 history records