Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:17:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
90 0x9091…0020 world 38 markets active 1h ago coverage 463d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized +$0 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate49%18W / 19L
Drawdown91%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$46now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 78% −$1
other 18% −$1
crypto 2% $0
sports 2% $0
economics 0% $0
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-6.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +1.5% -8.2% 40% 10% -9.6%
≤30d 20 +13.4% +2.6% 40% 10% -9.5%
≤90d 20 +13.4% +2.6% 40% 10% -9.5%
all 37 +3.1% -6.7% 49% 11% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.7% 11% -9.5%
10% -15.6% 8% -18.1%
15% -23.8% 3% -26.0%
20% -31.2% 3% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 57% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
78% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

463d coverage
Net worth$46
Realized+$0
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses18 / 19
Open positions1
Markets (closed)37 / 38
History coverage463d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown91%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 86¢ 84¢ $47 $46 −$1 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 20 $3 $0 -17%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 19 $19 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 19 $136 −$6 -4%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $27 $0 +1%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 19 $49 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $6 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $40 +$1 +2%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $15 +$5 +33%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $35 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $40 $0 -0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $39 +$1 +3%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $42 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 11 $47 −$1 -2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $46 $0 -1%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 09 $9 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 09 $27 +$1 +3%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $3 $0 -6%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $95 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $112 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $27 $0 +0%
Will Alexander Zverev win Wimbledon 2025? Dec 15 $2 $0 +2%
Will Ruth Nina win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Dec 15 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum all time high by June 30? Jun 26 $10 $0 +4%
Will Raphinha be the top Champions League scorer? Jun 01 $0 $0 -100%
Will Rafał Trzaskowski win by over 12%? May 29 $1 $0 +11%
Will the Chicago Bears win Super Bowl 2026? May 28 $11 $0 +0%
Will Nikola Jokic win the 2024-25 NBA MVP? May 24 $10 $0 +3%
Will the next Government of Canada be a Liberal minority? May 10 $1 $0 +4%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec May 10 $11 $0 -0%
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 09 $21 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the Western Conference? May 08 $14 −$2 -14%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2025? Apr 01 $14 $0 +0%
Will Florida win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? Mar 29 $3 +$1 +26%
Will Elon tweet 425-449 times March 21-28? Mar 29 $9 +$1 +10%
Another crypto hack over $1b before April? Mar 25 $12 $0 +1%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 23 $10 $0 +0%
Will 8+ Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Mar 19 $2 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $47 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 9h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $0 9h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 12h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $5 14h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $9 14h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $5 14h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $19 18h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 41¢ $48 23h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 47¢ $55 25h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 82¢ $21 29h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 82¢ $6 29h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 81¢ $27 32h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $3 33h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $46 33h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $15 37h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $34 37h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 43¢ $16 41h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 43¢ $6 41h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 44¢ $22 45h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $37 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $38 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 5¢ $5 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 5¢ $6 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 56¢ $7 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 56¢ $43 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 55¢ $25 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 55¢ $24 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $14 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $46.10 · official $45.92 (match) · 135 history records