Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T01:03:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
90 0x9093…8700 politics 141 markets active 2h ago coverage 166d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$12 (-0%) realized −$12 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate9%12W / 128L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$45per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$40now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 28% −$3
politics 25% −$3
sports 22% −$5
economics 8% $0
crypto 7% −$1
culture 4% $0
world 3% $0
tech 2% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 3 -0.6% -10.1% 0% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 5 -0.5% -10.0% 0% 0% -9.9%
all 140 -0.1% -9.6% 9% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 67% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.11 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

166d coverage
Net worth$40
Realized−$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses12 / 128
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)140 / 141
History coverage166d
Avg bet$45
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 140 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 97¢ 96¢ $41 $40 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 19 $43 −$1 -1%
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 08 $43 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 31 $43 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 23 $104 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 15 $43 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Mar 03 $141 $0 +0%
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 01 $53 $0 -0%
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 01 $39 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 01 $42 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 01 $235 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Mar 01 $43 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 01 $45 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Mar 01 $93 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 28 $44 $0 -0%
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 28 $49 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Feb 28 $83 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 28 $114 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Feb 27 $189 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? Feb 27 $98 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Feb 27 $139 $0 -0%
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026? Feb 27 $48 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 26 $122 $0 -0%
Will Nigel Farage be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Feb 26 $44 $0 -0%
Will Marty Supreme win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Feb 26 $148 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 26 $93 $0 -0%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? Feb 23 $150 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 23 $46 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Feb 23 $102 $0 -0%
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Feb 22 $230 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Feb 22 $56 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 22 $106 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? Feb 22 $62 $0 -0%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Feb 22 $85 $0 -0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 22 $169 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Feb 22 $50 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 22 $214 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e Feb 22 $52 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 22 $140 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? Feb 19 $53 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 17 $53 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 17 $51 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Feb 17 $105 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Feb 14 $54 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru Feb 14 $110 $0 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Feb 14 $48 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 14 $50 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in February? Feb 14 $52 $0 -0%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be István Kapitány? Feb 14 $50 $0 -0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 14 $49 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 14 $54 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 97¢ $41 1h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 94¢ $42 7d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 95¢ $43 7d
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 93¢ $42 18d
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 93¢ $43 19d
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 93¢ $43 26d
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 93¢ $43 26d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 97¢ $49 34d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 97¢ $49 34d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $43 42d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $43 42d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee SELL Yes 97¢ $48 115d
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 94¢ $3 117d
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 95¢ $3 117d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee BUY Yes 96¢ $48 117d
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL No 96¢ $39 117d
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY No 97¢ $39 117d
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL No 94¢ $42 117d
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY No 94¢ $42 117d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee SELL Yes 94¢ $41 117d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee BUY Yes 94¢ $41 117d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $46 117d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $46 117d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 96¢ $43 117d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 97¢ $43 117d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 91¢ $45 117d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 91¢ $45 117d
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 96¢ $43 117d
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 96¢ $43 117d
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 97¢ $44 118d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40.40 · official $40.40 (match) · 495 history records