Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T03:58:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
90 0x9094…a787 other 135 markets active 1h ago coverage 134d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$336 (+0%) realized +$337 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate19%26W / 108L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown74%max
Avg bet$1,026per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$647now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$5
14 days−$14
30 days−$35
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% −$215
politics 36% −$62
sports 10% +$600
world 3% −$3
economics 2% −$3
culture 1% −$1
crypto 1% +$1
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-8.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 19 -0.1% -9.6% 11% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 62 -0.1% -9.6% 6% 0% -9.6%
all 134 +1.6% -8.1% 19% 12% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.1% 12% -9.3%
10% -16.9% 11% -18.0%
15% -24.9% 10% -25.9%
20% -32.3% 9% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,324) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +3% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$54 vs −$10 · ×5.37 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.29 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

134d coverage
Net worth$647
Realized+$337
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses26 / 108
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)134 / 135
History coverage134d
Avg bet$1,026
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown74%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 134 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 99¢ $648 $647 −$1 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 28 $572 −$1 -0%
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 27 $1,151 −$1 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 27 $572 −$1 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 21 $577 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 21 $570 −$1 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 19 $1,820 −$3 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 19 $577 −$1 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $2,918 −$3 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $1,822 −$2 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $1,226 −$2 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $3,313 −$4 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $3,093 −$4 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $2,567 −$3 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 04 $1,034 −$2 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 04 $1,036 −$1 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 04 $2,457 −$3 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 03 $2,666 −$4 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? Jun 03 $276 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in May? Jun 03 $487 $0 +0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 28 $1,201 −$1 -0%
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 28 $415 −$1 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 28 $1,271 −$2 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 27 $4,782 −$5 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 23 $1,042 −$2 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $1,041 −$2 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 22 $1,051 −$1 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 11 $1,048 −$1 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 09 $2,135 −$2 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 09 $1,290 −$2 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? May 08 $1,253 −$2 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 08 $1,265 −$2 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $3,995 −$5 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 07 $1,287 −$2 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 07 $1,287 −$2 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? May 06 $2,372 −$4 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 05 $2,158 −$2 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 02 $1,178 −$2 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 30 $1,050 −$2 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $1,875 −$2 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $3,016 −$3 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $3,090 −$2 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 13 $1,166 −$1 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 13 $1,148 −$1 -0%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 12 $1,052 −$1 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $2,017 −$2 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 10 $1,086 −$1 -0%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 09 $1,243 −$1 -0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 07 $1,725 −$2 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 07 $1,679 −$2 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 04 $2,155 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $571 37m
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $572 2h
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $574 18h
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $575 22h
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $571 23h
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $572 26h
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $576 46h
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $577 2d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $576 6d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $577 6d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $570 6d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $570 7d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $575 8d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $576 8d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $576 9d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $577 9d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $648 11d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $831 13d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $832 13d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,223 13d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,225 14d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,225 14d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,226 14d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,231 14d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,232 15d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,132 15d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,134 15d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,044 20d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,045 20d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,033 23d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $646.94 · official $646.94 (match) · 445 history records