Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T07:26:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
90 0x9095…96f7 crypto 208 markets active 0h ago coverage 34d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$10,580 (+25%) realized +$7,598 · open +$2,982
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate58%113W / 82L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown41%max
Avg bet$202per market
Trades / day34.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$8,423now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$142
7 days+$1,119
14 days+$999
30 days+$6,904
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$9,947
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-4.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 +4.5% -5.4% 59% 59% +9.4%
≤30d 188 +5.0% -5.0% 58% 55% +8.4%
≤90d 195 +5.3% -4.7% 58% 55% +8.4%
all 195 +5.3% -4.7% 58% 55% +8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover34.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.7% 55% +8.4%
10% ← realistic here -13.9% 42% -2.0%
15% -22.2% 33% -11.5%
20% -29.8% 27% -20.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +19% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +12% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$126 vs −$89 · ×1.42 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.96 per $1 lost it wins $1.96
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

34d coverage
Net worth$8,423
Realized+$7,598
Unrealized+$2,982
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses113 / 82
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Open positions13
Markets (closed)195 / 208
History coverage34d
Avg bet$202
Trades / day34.1
Drawdown41%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 195 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? No 41¢ 60¢ $2,352 $3,442 +$1,090 (+46%)
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? No 37¢ 96¢ $592 $1,535 +$943 (+159%)
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? No 54¢ 84¢ $700 $1,085 +$385 (+55%)
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? No 60¢ 98¢ $603 $982 +$380 (+63%)
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 18? No 60¢ 58¢ $418 $409 −$9 (-2%)
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? No 77¢ 99¢ $231 $297 +$66 (+29%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,200 in June? No 59¢ 98¢ $177 $295 +$118 (+67%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? No 49¢ 36¢ $147 $110 −$38 (-26%)
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? No 30¢ 94¢ $30 $94 +$64 (+212%)
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 18? Down 56¢ 92¢ $56 $92 +$36 (+65%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 18? Yes 38¢ 25¢ $76 $50 −$26 (-34%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? No 4¢ 2¢ $35 $20 −$14 (-41%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 18? Yes 8¢ 4¢ $24 $11 −$13 (-56%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 17? Jun 18 $13 +$2 +15%
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 17? Jun 18 $101 +$39 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $102 +$98 +96%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $6 +$4 +61%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $54 −$34 -63%
Will Ethereum reach $1,800 on June 17? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 on June 16? Jun 17 $9 +$1 +15%
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 on June 16? Jun 17 $8 +$2 +18%
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 16? Jun 17 $137 +$163 +119%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $50 +$50 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $8 +$2 +20%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $165 −$165 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 on June 15? Jun 16 $9 +$1 +14%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 on June 15? Jun 16 $116 +$84 +72%
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $129 −$127 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $526 −$508 -97%
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 14? Jun 15 $1,372 +$1,568 +114%
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 14? Jun 15 $130 +$70 +54%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? Jun 14 $209 −$209 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $214 −$214 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 13? Jun 14 $60 +$40 +67%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $29 −$22 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 13? Jun 13 $225 −$171 -76%
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $352 −$352 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 12? Jun 13 $221 +$139 +63%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $104 +$50 +48%
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $219 +$150 +69%
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 11? Jun 12 $8 +$2 +18%
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 11? Jun 12 $470 +$531 +113%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 12? Jun 11 $83 −$28 -34%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $117 −$23 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $84 −$5 -6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $13 −$8 -64%
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 10? Jun 11 $24 +$6 +25%
Will Bitcoin reach $63,000 on June 10? Jun 11 $1,328 +$1,627 +122%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $452 −$272 -60%
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $16 −$9 -57%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $38 −$25 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $76 −$59 -78%
Will Bitcoin reach $62,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $455 −$455 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 9? Jun 10 $70 +$30 +43%
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 9? Jun 10 $86 +$14 +16%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $120 +$80 +67%
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $65 −$47 -72%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $40 −$29 -71%
Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 on May 29? Jun 09 $103 −$103 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $68,000 on June 2? Jun 09 $161 −$161 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in May? Jun 09 $809 −$71 -9%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,900 on June 2? Jun 09 $434 −$403 -93%
Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 on May 21? Jun 09 $139 −$88 -64%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 18? BUY No 52¢ $156 0m
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 18? BUY No 58¢ $116 1m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? BUY No 4¢ $2 48m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? BUY No 4¢ $4 50m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? BUY No 4¢ $1 53m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? BUY No 4¢ $4 54m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? BUY No 4¢ $4 56m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? BUY No 4¢ $4 57m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? BUY No 4¢ $0 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? BUY No 4¢ $0 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? BUY No 4¢ $0 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 8¢ $24 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 18? BUY No 60¢ $35 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? BUY No 49¢ $147 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 38¢ $76 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? BUY No 4¢ $17 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 18? BUY No 60¢ $17 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 18? BUY No 60¢ $8 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 18? BUY No 63¢ $65 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 17? BUY No 87¢ $4 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 18? BUY Down 56¢ $2 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 18? BUY Down 56¢ $54 12h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 17? BUY No 69¢ $0 15h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 17? BUY No 69¢ $69 15h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 17? BUY No 78¢ $16 15h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 17? BUY No 80¢ $0 15h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 17? BUY No 80¢ $8 15h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? SELL No 2¢ $20 17h
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 17? BUY No 87¢ $9 21h
Will Ethereum reach $1,800 on June 17? BUY No 20¢ $20 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8,423.47 · official $8,422.35 (match) · 1302 history records