Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:24:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
90 0x909e…3659 crypto 244 markets active 0h ago coverage 589d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$692 (+6%) realized +$692 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate70%171W / 73L
Drawdown96%max
Avg bet$44per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$398
7 days+$206
14 days+$206
30 days−$381
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 73% +$478
politics 14% +$990
other 10% −$1,036
sports 2% +$139
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-3.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 240 +8.1% -2.2% 71% 56% -6.7%
≤30d 241 +7.6% -2.6% 71% 56% -12.8%
≤90d 241 +7.6% -2.6% 71% 56% -12.8%
all 244 +7.0% -3.2% 70% 55% -4.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.2% 55% -4.2%
10% -12.5% 36% -13.3%
15% -20.9% 23% -21.7%
20% -28.7% 18% -29.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 45% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late +9% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$25 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.31 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

589d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$692
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses171 / 73
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)244 / 244
History coverage589d
Avg bet$44
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown96%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 244 Trades
no open positions (23 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 17 $40 +$3 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 17 $20 +$5 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 17 $20 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 17 $20 +$5 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 17 $20 +$2 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $20 +$4 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 17 $41 +$11 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 17 $40 +$6 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 17 $61 +$12 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 17 $51 +$14 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 17 $71 −$50 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 17 $20 +$5 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 17 $21 +$3 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 17 $20 +$6 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 17 $70 +$6 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 17 $41 −$13 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 17 $41 −$17 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 17 $71 +$5 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 17 $70 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 17 $40 +$3 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 17 $20 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 17 $20 +$5 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 17 $20 +$5 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 17 $21 +$14 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 16 $51 +$8 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 16 $20 +$5 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 16 $20 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 16 $21 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$3 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 16 $50 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 16 $20 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 16 $55 −$12 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$5 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 16 $21 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 16 $72 +$30 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 16 $20 −$2 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 16 $61 −$26 -43%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $20 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $20 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET SELL Down 97¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $22 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $24 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET SELL Up 59¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $47 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $43 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET SELL Up 64¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $65 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET SELL Down 20¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $20 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET SELL Up 74¢ $23 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $21 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 823 history records