Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:36:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
90 0x909e…4287 crypto 429 markets active 7h ago coverage 19d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$22 (-0%) realized −$25 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate48%205W / 223L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day42.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$13now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$289
7 days−$305
14 days−$44
30 days−$121
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$121
other 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 184 -13.5% -21.7% 43% 43% -18.1%
≤30d 428 -2.9% -12.2% 48% 48% -10.5%
≤90d 428 -2.9% -12.2% 48% 48% -10.5%
all 428 -2.9% -12.2% 48% 48% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover42.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.2% 48% -10.5%
10% ← realistic here -20.6% 48% -19.1%
15% -28.2% 47% -26.9%
20% -35.3% 46% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$11 · ×1.03 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

19d coverage
Net worth$13
Realized−$25
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses205 / 223
Open positions1
Markets (closed)428 / 429
History coverage19d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day42.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 428 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 12¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+28%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 200 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 17 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 17 $57 −$55 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 17 $31 +$27 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$23 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$11 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 17 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$9 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 17 $11 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 17 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$10 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 17 $16 +$4 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 16 $16 +$14 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$9 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 16 $21 +$7 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 16 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$8 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 16 $16 −$6 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 16 $16 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 16 $31 −$17 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$6 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 16 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 16 $16 +$14 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 16 $21 −$18 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 16 $16 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 16 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$8 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$10 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$10 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 16 $16 +$15 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$8 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 16 $16 −$13 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$9 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 16 $21 +$18 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$5 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$13 +124%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $10 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $10 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $10 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $10 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $10 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $10 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $10 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $10 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $10 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $10 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $10 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $10 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $10 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $10 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $10 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13.04 · official $12.83 (match) · 1023 history records