Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T00:26:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

5.0
score
90 0x90a0…7e0a politics 544 markets active 0h ago coverage 316d ⚠
RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 315d only
! high turnover
Total PnL +$23,164 (+16%) realized +$21,793 · open +$1,371
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +37% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +14% what you keep after slip
Net edge+14%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate75%399W / 130L
Whale WR68%big bets
Drawdown18%max
Avg bet$264per market
Trades / day9.4pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$6,293now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$49
7 days+$205
14 days−$838
30 days+$1,731
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 42% +$10,392
world 16% −$1,936
other 14% +$1,761
economics 9% +$2,914
tech 7% +$2,592
sports 5% −$1,169
finance 4% +$5,944
crypto 1% +$136
culture 0% −$255
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)+24.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -41.5% -47.1% 50% 50% +1.1%
≤30d 16 -19.1% -26.8% 44% 38% +0.8%
≤90d 87 +10.6% +0.0% 77% 47% +4.7%
all 529 +37.2% +24.1% 75% 49% +2.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +24.1% 49% +2.8%
10% +12.2% 38% -7.0%
15% +1.4% 32% -16.0%
20% -8.5% 24% -24.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
35% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +37% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 68% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +30% → late +45% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
4.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$102 vs −$168 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.88 per $1 lost it wins $1.88
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

316d coverage
Net worth$6,293
Realized+$21,793
Unrealized+$1,371
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses399 / 130
Whale WR (big bets)68%
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions15
Markets (closed)529 / 544
History coverage316d ⚠
Avg bet$264
Trades / day9.4
Drawdown18%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 529 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
OpenAI IPO before 2027? No 28¢ 46¢ $890 $1,467 +$577 (+65%)
Will the announcers say "Ronaldo" during the Portugal vs Uzbekistan FIFA World Cup Match? Yes 99¢ 99¢ $1,182 $1,189 +$7 (+1%)
Will OpenAI IPO by September 30 2026? No 58¢ 87¢ $695 $1,047 +$351 (+51%)
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be at least $800b on June 30? Yes 93¢ 99¢ $651 $694 +$43 (+7%)
Will the announcers say "Golden Boot" during the Norway Vs Senegal FIFA World Cup Match? Yes 99¢ 97¢ $538 $528 −$10 (-2%)
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? No 27¢ 48¢ $278 $489 +$211 (+76%)
Fannie Mae IPO before 2027? No 74¢ 88¢ $149 $175 +$26 (+18%)
Will the announcers say "Verizon" during the Portugal vs Uzbekistan FIFA World Cup Match? No 95¢ 97¢ $162 $165 +$3 (+2%)
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by June 30? No 52¢ 79¢ $106 $159 +$53 (+50%)
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? No 36¢ 30¢ $180 $152 −$27 (-15%)
Will the announcers say "Assist" during the Norway Vs Senegal FIFA World Cup Match? Yes 0¢ 96¢ $0 $144 +$144 (+0%)
Discord IPO before 2027? No 36¢ 37¢ $36 $37 +$1 (+2%)
Will the match not air? No 99¢ 99¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+0%)
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? Yes 10¢ 7¢ $20 $14 −$6 (-29%)
Will the announcers say "Verizon" during the Norway Vs Senegal FIFA World Cup Match? No 91¢ 56¢ $7 $4 −$3 (-38%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the announcers say "What a Save" during the Norway Vs Senegal FIF Jun 23 $50 −$49 -98%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $1,697 +$254 +15%
Will anyone say "Morty" 10+ times during Rick and Morty E4 S9? Jun 15 $7 +$3 +37%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 13 $4,053 −$519 -13%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? Jun 12 $2,304 −$47 -2%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $834 +$26 +3%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $656 −$447 -68%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? Jun 12 $65 −$58 -90%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 08 $905 −$70 -8%
Will Trump say "Dumbocrat" or "Dumocrat" or "Dumacrat" during events i Jun 04 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? Jun 02 $338 +$162 +48%
Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by May 30? Jun 02 $3,407 +$2,204 +65%
Will MrBeast say "MrBeast" during his next YouTube video? Jun 01 $14 −$14 -100%
Will MrBeast say "Feastables" during his next YouTube video? Jun 01 $0 $0 -100%
Will Donald Trump dance on May 25, 2026? May 31 $857 +$298 +35%
Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from May 19 to May 2 May 27 $17 +$11 +69%
Will Trump say "Yankee" or "Yankees" during events in Rockland County? May 23 $28 +$12 +41%
Will Trump's remarks not air? May 23 $98 +$2 +2%
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping? May 23 $89 +$68 +76%
Major US official out by May 31? May 22 $753 +$351 +47%
Will Trump's remarks not air? May 21 $10 $0 +1%
Will Trump say "Six Seven" during Coast Guard event? May 21 $57 +$7 +13%
Will Trump say "Kamikaze" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $15 +$1 +4%
Will Trump say "Silk Road" during Chinese State Banquet? May 15 $33 +$7 +21%
Will 60 or more of senators vote “Yea” for Trump’s Fed Chair nominee? May 14 $113 +$30 +27%
Will Trump say "Ship" or "Chip" during events with Xi Jinping? May 14 $145 +$2 +2%
Will Trump and Xi handshake last 15 seconds or longer during the day o May 14 $2,235 +$165 +7%
Will Trump and Xi handshake last 10–15 seconds during the day of their May 14 $1,340 +$100 +8%
Will Trump visit China by May 15? May 13 $163 +$115 +70%
Will Trump visit China by May 31? May 13 $4,012 +$1,488 +37%
Will annual inflation increase by 3.2% in April? May 12 $6 −$5 -86%
Will annual inflation increase by 3.3% in April? May 12 $12 −$8 -68%
Will annual inflation increase by ≤3.1% in April? May 11 $530 +$24 +4%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? May 11 $692 +$8 +1%
Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine? May 11 $1,306 −$1,220 -93%
Will Trump visit China by May 8? May 09 $786 +$14 +2%
Will Trump say "Six Seven" during events with Brazilian president? May 08 $9 +$1 +12%
Will Trump say "Maduro" during events with Brazilian president? May 08 $6 +$9 +144%
Will Trump speak to Ursula von der Leyen in May? May 08 $1,188 +$12 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce Todd Blanche as the next United States Atto May 06 $531 +$115 +22%
Will Donald Trump announce Lee Zeldin as the next United States Attorn May 03 $852 +$640 +75%
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 1? May 02 $919 +$681 +74%
Will no qualifying event occur on April 21? Apr 21 $164 +$4 +2%
Will "Mog" be said during the 2026 Sidemen Charity Match? Apr 19 $166 −$127 -77%
Will Trump post "POTUS" this week on Truth Social? Apr 19 $109 +$30 +27%
Will Trump say "Sleepy" or "Biden" or "Obama" 10+ times during TPUSA e Apr 18 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Trump say "Kamala" during TPUSA events on April 17? Apr 18 $1 +$1 +100%
Will "Yellow Card" be said during the 2026 Sidemen Charity Match? Apr 18 $4 +$1 +22%
Will Trump say "Woke" during TPUSA events on April 17? Apr 18 $23 +$25 +108%
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during TPUSA events on April 17? Apr 18 $178 +$22 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the announcers say "Assist" during the Norway Vs Senegal FIFA Wor BUY Yes 98¢ $49 2m
Will the announcers say "Assist" during the Norway Vs Senegal FIFA Wor BUY Yes 98¢ $98 2m
Will the announcers say "Golden Boot" during the Norway Vs Senegal FIF BUY Yes 99¢ $495 10m
Will the announcers say "Verizon" during the Norway Vs Senegal FIFA Wo BUY No 91¢ $7 11m
Will the announcers say "What a Save" during the Norway Vs Senegal FIF SELL No 2¢ $1 12m
Will the announcers say "Golden Boot" during the Norway Vs Senegal FIF BUY Yes 98¢ $43 13m
Will the announcers say "What a Save" during the Norway Vs Senegal FIF BUY No 71¢ $28 1h
Will the match not air? BUY No 99¢ $30 1h
Will the announcers say "Ronaldo" during the Portugal vs Uzbekistan FI BUY Yes 99¢ $228 1h
Will the announcers say "Ronaldo" during the Portugal vs Uzbekistan FI BUY Yes 98¢ $956 1h
Will the announcers say "Verizon" during the Portugal vs Uzbekistan FI BUY No 95¢ $162 1h
Will the announcers say "What a Save" during the Norway Vs Senegal FIF BUY No 71¢ $21 2h
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? BUY No 36¢ $3 2d
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? BUY No 36¢ $59 2d
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? BUY No 36¢ $2 2d
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? BUY No 36¢ $7 2d
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? BUY No 36¢ $1 2d
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? BUY No 36¢ $6 2d
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? BUY No 36¢ $11 2d
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? BUY No 36¢ $6 2d
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? BUY No 36¢ $4 2d
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? BUY No 36¢ $2 2d
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? BUY No 36¢ $50 2d
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? BUY No 36¢ $1 2d
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? BUY No 36¢ $0 2d
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? BUY No 36¢ $0 2d
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? BUY No 36¢ $0 2d
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? BUY No 36¢ $20 2d
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? BUY No 36¢ $2 2d
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? BUY No 36¢ $6 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6,293.31 · official $6,280.20 (match) · 3500 history records