Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T14:44:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
90 0x90a1…293d other 16 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$3 (-1%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate8%1W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day21.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit44%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$11
sports 30% +$1
world 25% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-26.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -18.2% -26.0% 8% 8% -14.7%
≤30d 12 -18.2% -26.0% 8% 8% -14.7%
≤90d 12 -18.2% -26.0% 8% 8% -14.7%
all 12 -18.2% -26.0% 8% 8% -14.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -26.0% 8% -14.7%
10% ← realistic here -33.1% 8% -22.9%
15% -39.5% 8% -30.3%
20% -45.5% 8% -37.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +34% → late -70% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$1 · ×2.07 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.19 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses1 / 11
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions4
Markets (closed)12 / 16
History coverage3d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day21.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Yes $1 $1 +$0 (+8%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $80 −$6 -7%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $2 $0 -14%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 +$3 +234%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 $0 -14%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $8 −$1 -7%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $44 −$1 -3%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 13 $59 −$2 -4%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $8 $0 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $6 30m
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $7 31m
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $7 34m
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $7 34m
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $7 40m
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $8 40m
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $8 41m
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $9 42m
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $9 45m
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $9 1h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 10h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $1 10h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 12¢ $2 10h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 10h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes $1 10h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 10h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 33h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? SELL Yes 12¢ $1 33h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 2d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 2d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 2d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 2d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes $1 2d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $7 2d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $7 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 81¢ $7 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 82¢ $7 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 81¢ $7 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 82¢ $7 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.03 · official $4.03 (match) · 65 history records