Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T16:11:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
90 0x90b3…5252 crypto 297 markets active 2h ago coverage 232d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$24 (-0%) realized −$22 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate41%121W / 175L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$53per market
Trades / day4.3pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$90now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$86
7 days+$86
14 days+$102
30 days−$395
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 64% −$671
sports 33% +$705
other 4% −$152
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-4.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -50.0% -54.8% 33% 33% +26.3%
≤30d 19 -50.8% -55.5% 16% 16% -53.1%
≤90d 35 -45.4% -50.6% 29% 29% -41.8%
all 296 +5.4% -4.6% 41% 39% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.6% 39% -10.2%
10% -13.8% 35% -18.8%
15% -22.1% 31% -26.6%
20% -29.7% 27% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -36% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +9% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$53 vs −$37 · ×1.42 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

232d coverage
Net worth$90
Realized−$22
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses121 / 175
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions1
Markets (closed)296 / 297
History coverage232d
Avg bet$53
Trades / day4.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 296 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $92 $90 −$2 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 20 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 20 $8 −$8 -97%
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 20 $8 −$8 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $202 +$101 +50%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $39 +$16 +41%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $247 −$243 -99%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 1 - 1 Arsenal FC? May 30 $10 +$56 +543%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 2 - 0 Arsenal FC? May 30 $51 −$50 -97%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 3 - 0 Arsenal FC? May 30 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 1 - 0 Arsenal FC? May 30 $51 −$50 -97%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 0 - 1 Arsenal FC? May 30 $51 −$50 -97%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 3 - 3 Arsenal FC? May 30 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 0 - 3 Arsenal FC? May 30 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 0 - 2 Arsenal FC? May 30 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 1 - 2 Arsenal FC? May 30 $62 −$60 -97%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 2 - 3 Arsenal FC? May 30 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 1 - 3 Arsenal FC? May 30 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 3 - 1 Arsenal FC? May 30 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 3 - 2 Arsenal FC? May 30 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 2 - 1 Arsenal FC? May 30 $10 −$10 -97%
LoL: Team WE vs Oh My God (BO3) - Esports World Cup China Qualifier Ph Apr 13 $50 −$6 -12%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - Esports World Cup China Q Apr 13 $50 +$8 +16%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Apr 13 $42 +$7 +17%
Valorant: baigiau vs Bonk (BO3) - VCL NORTH//EAST Group A Apr 12 $50 +$11 +23%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs HANJIN BRION Challengers (BO3) - LCK Cha Apr 09 $50 +$19 +38%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 08 $10 −$10 -98%
LoL: INTZ e-Sports vs Estral Esports (BO1) - Circuito Desafiante Regul Apr 08 $50 −$50 -99%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Trace Esports (BO3) - VCT China Group Omega Apr 08 $90 +$27 +30%
LoL: GLORE vs Orbit Anonymo (BO3) - Rift Legends Regular Season Apr 08 $50 +$15 +29%
LoL: Unicorns Of Love Sexy Edition vs Misa Esports (BO3) - EMEA Master Apr 07 $105 +$37 +35%
LoL: VfB eSports vs G2 NORD (BO1) - Prime League 1st Division Regular Apr 07 $5 −$4 -98%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs JD Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup China Qual Apr 07 $100 −$99 -99%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Apr 07 $34 −$34 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Apr 07 $9 −$9 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Apr 07 $50 −$50 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - First Stand Playoffs Apr 07 $36 −$36 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Mar 23 $2 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Mar 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Mar 22 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Mar 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Mar 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Mar 22 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Mar 22 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Mar 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Mar 22 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Mar 22 $11 −$11 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs JD Gaming - Game 3 Winner Mar 22 $25 −$25 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs JD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Mar 22 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Mar 18 $15 +$73 +490%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Mar 18 $17 −$15 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Mar 18 $12 +$40 +332%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $94 1h
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 1 Curaçao? BUY Yes 7¢ $8 40h
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 15¢ $8 40h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $202 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $56 10d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $39 11d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 54¢ $84 22d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 53¢ $10 22d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 49¢ $152 22d
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 1 - 1 Arsenal FC? SELL Yes 99¢ $66 22d
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 2 - 0 Arsenal FC? BUY Yes 11¢ $51 23d
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 3 - 0 Arsenal FC? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 23d
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 1 - 0 Arsenal FC? BUY Yes 12¢ $51 23d
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 0 - 1 Arsenal FC? BUY Yes 12¢ $51 23d
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 3 - 3 Arsenal FC? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 23d
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 0 - 3 Arsenal FC? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 23d
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 0 - 2 Arsenal FC? BUY Yes 6¢ $21 23d
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 1 - 2 Arsenal FC? BUY Yes 9¢ $51 23d
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 2 - 3 Arsenal FC? BUY Yes 3¢ $21 23d
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 1 - 3 Arsenal FC? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 23d
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 3 - 1 Arsenal FC? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 23d
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 3 - 2 Arsenal FC? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 23d
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 1 - 1 Arsenal FC? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 23d
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 2 - 1 Arsenal FC? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 23d
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 1 - 2 Arsenal FC? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 23d
LoL: Team WE vs Oh My God (BO3) - Esports World Cup China Qualifier Ph SELL Team WE 64¢ $44 70d
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - Esports World Cup China Q SELL Anyones Legend 85¢ $58 70d
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs HANJIN BRION Challengers (BO3) - LCK Cha BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 72¢ $50 74d
LoL: KT Rolster vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 BUY Nongshim Red Force 30¢ $10 74d
Valorant: baigiau vs Bonk (BO3) - VCL NORTH//EAST Group A BUY Bonk 81¢ $50 74d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $89.91 · official $89.91 (match) · 1197 history records