Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T03:48:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
90 0x90b3…8b6d sports 12 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover
Total PnL −$137 (-23%) realized −$100 · open −$37
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +3% what you keep after slip
Net edge+3%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate60%6W / 4L
Drawdown96%max
Avg bet$49per market
Trades / day12.0pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$63now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$107
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)+12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +23.8% +12.0% 60% 60% +17.4%
≤30d 10 +23.8% +12.0% 60% 60% +17.4%
≤90d 10 +23.8% +12.0% 60% 60% +17.4%
all 10 +23.8% +12.0% 60% 60% +17.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +12.0% 60% +17.4%
10% +1.3% 60% +6.2%
15% -8.5% 60% -4.1%
20% -17.5% 60% -13.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 45% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +30% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +24% · $-wt +30% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$54 vs −$45 · ×1.2 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.8 per $1 lost it wins $1.8
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$63
Realized−$100
Unrealized−$37
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses6 / 4
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions2
Markets (closed)10 / 12
History coverage1d
Avg bet$49
Trades / day12.0
Drawdown96%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Uruguay 42¢ 44¢ $50 $52 +$2 (+4%)
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Over 49¢ 11¢ $50 $11 −$39 (-78%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 22 $51 +$47 +93%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $51 +$53 +105%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $51 +$84 +165%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $51 +$60 +119%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 22 $51 +$37 +73%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $51 −$50 -98%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $51 −$50 -98%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $51 +$42 +83%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 Jun 21 $51 −$50 -98%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $30 −$30 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 51¢ $51 1h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $51 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 49¢ $51 4h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 37¢ $51 6h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 57¢ $51 6h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 42¢ $51 6h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $51 6h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 47¢ $51 7h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $51 9h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 44¢ $51 10h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 58¢ $30 20h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 54¢ $51 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $63.01 · official $63.01 (match) · 18 history records