Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:25:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
90 0x90b4…c039 other 46 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,332 (+4%) realized +$1,318 · open +$14
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate71%32W / 13L
Whale WR58%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$744per market
Trades / day27.2pace
Fees−$40est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$414now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 77% +$822
sports 15% +$813
crypto 6% −$82
world 2% −$767
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 45 +0.6% -9.0% 71% 38% -7.3%
≤30d 45 +0.6% -9.0% 71% 38% -7.3%
≤90d 45 +0.6% -9.0% 71% 38% -7.3%
all 45 +0.6% -9.0% 71% 38% -7.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.2 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.0% 38% -7.3%
10% -17.7% 33% -16.1%
15% ← realistic here -25.6% 29% -24.2%
20% -32.9% 24% -31.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
47% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 58% (≥$503) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +7% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$286 vs −$645 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$414
Realized+$1,318
Unrealized+$14
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses32 / 13
Whale WR (big bets)58%
Est. fees paid−$40
Open positions1
Markets (closed)45 / 46
History coverage4d
Avg bet$744
Trades / day27.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 45 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 72¢ 74¢ $400 $414 +$14 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $202 +$137 +67%
Ghana vs. Panama: Ghana O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $401 −$396 -99%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $3,928 +$2,760 +70%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $1,443 +$1,397 +97%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5,036 −$3,945 -78%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $3,032 +$1,655 +55%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1,737 +$67 +4%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $3,884 +$884 +23%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $2,636 +$1,250 +47%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $811 −$767 -95%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $2,300 −$820 -36%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $232 −$230 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $763 −$691 -90%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $503 −$344 -68%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 15 $458 −$455 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $507 +$454 +90%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $234 +$19 +8%
Spread: Tunisia (-1.5) Jun 15 $483 +$25 +5%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $3 $0 +8%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 3 Ecuador? Jun 15 $169 +$3 +2%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $252 +$110 +43%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Ecuador O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $328 +$10 +3%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $316 +$34 +11%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $204 −$196 -96%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $322 +$6 +2%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $300 +$15 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 14 $205 +$103 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 14 $302 −$189 -63%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $203 −$203 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 14 $77 +$41 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 14 $52 +$51 +98%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $47 +$11 +23%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 3 Japan? Jun 14 $400 +$3 +1%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 3 Japan? Jun 14 $448 +$9 +2%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $177 −$127 -72%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $425 +$24 +6%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 14 $100 +$19 +18%
Germany to win the second half? Jun 14 $97 +$4 +4%
Curaçao to score first vs. Germany? Jun 14 $41 +$3 +7%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $500 +$15 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 14 $15 +$16 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 14 $14 +$11 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 14 $202 +$6 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 14 $31 −$20 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 14 $16 +$16 +101%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $403 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: Ghana O/U 0.5 SELL Under 1¢ $5 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: Ghana O/U 0.5 BUY Under 93¢ $401 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $202 3h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $2,836 7h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $2,840 7h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $1,092 7h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 17¢ $1,091 7h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 50¢ $1,443 7h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $5,036 16h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 96¢ $1,737 24h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $3,032 25h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 81¢ $3,884 29h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $3,886 29h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $873 33h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $582 41h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $46 47h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 3¢ $44 47h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $1,135 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 53¢ $811 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 100¢ $1,227 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 90¢ $436 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 87¢ $651 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 14¢ $252 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $202 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 65¢ $1,010 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $73 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 9¢ $72 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $160 2d
Spread: Spain (-1.5) SELL Spain 26¢ $159 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $413.89 · official $413.89 (match) · 124 history records