Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:23:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
90 0x90b5…6bae other 34 markets active 1h ago coverage 161d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$4,255 (-25%) realized −$4,250 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate30%9W / 21L
Whale WR57%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$500per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$19est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$895now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$128
7 days−$69
14 days−$69
30 days−$166
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 25% −$3,325
crypto 25% +$612
politics 16% −$168
sports 12% −$1,419
finance 12% +$402
world 10% −$233
economics 1% −$100
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)+1.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +950.0% +850.0% 50% 50% -98.2%
≤30d 8 +230.0% +198.6% 62% 62% -34.2%
≤90d 27 +24.7% +12.9% 33% 30% -32.6%
all 30 +12.3% +1.6% 30% 27% -34.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.6% 27% -34.3%
10% -8.2% 20% -40.6%
15% -17.0% 10% -46.3%
20% -25.2% 10% -51.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 60% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -25% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt -27% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 57% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -58% → late +82% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$219 vs −$295 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.32 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

161d coverage
Net worth$895
Realized−$4,250
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses9 / 21
Whale WR (big bets)57%
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions4
Markets (closed)30 / 34
History coverage161d
Avg bet$500
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $600 $596 −$4 (-1%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 57¢ 57¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 72¢ 72¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Yes 42¢ 42¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 17 $207 +$127 +62%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $199 −$197 -99%
Roland Garros WTA: Hanyu Guo vs McCartney Kessler May 25 $191 −$188 -99%
Roland Garros WTA: Kamilla Rakhimova vs Jaqueline Cristian May 25 $156 +$35 +23%
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Roman Safiullin May 25 $101 −$100 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Ignacio Buse vs Andrey Rublev May 25 $207 +$50 +24%
Roland Garros WTA: Elina Svitolina vs Anna Bondar May 25 $116 +$92 +79%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026? May 23 $100 +$14 +14%
Hamburg European Open, Qualification: Marcos Giron vs Max Schoenhaus May 17 $1,319 −$1,308 -99%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 17 $1,358 −$38 -3%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? Apr 16 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Zelenskyy attend the World Economic Forum? Apr 16 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Trump say "President Xi" during CNBC interview? Apr 16 $100 −$100 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $88,000 on January 22? Apr 16 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-11? Apr 16 $2,460 −$2,460 -100%
Will "Run Away" be the top US Netflix show this week? (January 13, 202 Apr 16 $64 −$64 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 9? Apr 16 $500 −$500 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on January 22? Apr 16 $100 −$100 -100%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? Apr 11 $2,392 +$67 +3%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in April? Apr 11 $2,010 +$402 +20%
Will Zelenskyy wear a suit and tie at the World Economic Forum? Apr 09 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Trump say "House" or "Housing" during CNBC interview? Apr 09 $100 −$100 -100%
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Apr 09 $200 −$200 -100%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Apr 09 $26 −$9 -36%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 9? Apr 09 $2,013 +$513 +26%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Apr 08 $100 −$35 -35%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on April 8? Apr 08 $1,276 +$672 +53%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026? Jan 14 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from January 10 to January 12, 2026? Jan 11 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026? Jan 10 $100 −$100 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET SELL Down 84¢ $324 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $103 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $503 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $103 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $101 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $102 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $101 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $101 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $98 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $101 3d
Roland Garros WTA: Hanyu Guo vs McCartney Kessler BUY Hanyu Guo 52¢ $191 22d
Roland Garros WTA: Kamilla Rakhimova vs Jaqueline Cristian SELL Kamilla Rakhimova 100¢ $192 22d
Roland Garros WTA: Kamilla Rakhimova vs Jaqueline Cristian BUY Kamilla Rakhimova 81¢ $156 22d
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Roman Safiullin BUY Roman Safiullin 61¢ $101 22d
Roland Garros ATP: Ignacio Buse vs Andrey Rublev SELL Andrey Rublev 100¢ $257 22d
Roland Garros ATP: Ignacio Buse vs Andrey Rublev BUY Andrey Rublev 80¢ $207 22d
Roland Garros WTA: Elina Svitolina vs Anna Bondar SELL Elina Svitolina 100¢ $207 22d
Roland Garros WTA: Elina Svitolina vs Anna Bondar BUY Elina Svitolina 55¢ $116 23d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $114 24d
Hamburg European Open, Qualification: Marcos Giron vs Max Schoenhaus BUY Marcos Giron 71¢ $1,319 31d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 35¢ $1,320 31d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 36¢ $1,358 31d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $100 31d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-11? BUY Yes 40¢ $2,460 67d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? SELL Yes 73¢ $2,460 67d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? BUY Yes 71¢ $2,392 67d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in April? SELL Yes 80¢ $2,412 67d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in April? BUY Yes 65¢ $2,010 68d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 9? BUY No 29¢ $500 69d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 9¢ $17 69d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $895.45 · official $895.10 (match) · 152 history records