Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T12:04:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
90 0x90b7…5b78 other 89 markets active 2h ago coverage 86d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$20 (+0%) realized +$20 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate16%14W / 73L
Drawdown50%max
Avg bet$61per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$66now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 63% +$7
politics 16% −$1
economics 7% $0
sports 7% +$13
world 3% $0
crypto 2% $0
culture 2% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-7.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.0% -9.5% 25% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 13 -7.8% -16.5% 15% 0% -10.3%
≤90d 87 +2.8% -7.0% 16% 11% -9.2%
all 87 +2.8% -7.0% 16% 11% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.0% 11% -9.2%
10% -15.9% 11% -17.9%
15% -24.1% 10% -25.8%
20% -31.5% 9% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$1 · ×7.12 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.37 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

86d coverage
Net worth$66
Realized+$20
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)16%
Wins / losses14 / 73
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)87 / 89
History coverage86d
Avg bet$61
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown50%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 87 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $37 $37 +$0 (+0%)
Will Solana reach $130 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $29 $29 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 19 $9 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 17 $16 $0 +1%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $14 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $13 $0 -0%
Will Monte win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 07 $15 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 06 $54 $0 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 05 $14 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in May? Jun 05 $33 $0 +0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 27 $88 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 26 $94 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $125 $0 -0%
Colorado Rockies vs. Arizona Diamondbacks May 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $67 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 20 $12 $0 -0%
Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? May 19 $13 $0 -0%
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 16 $81 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 15 $78 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 14 $73 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 14 $77 $0 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $159 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 07 $80 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 06 $77 $0 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $79 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 04 $209 $0 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 03 $73 $0 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $77 $0 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $76 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 01 $229 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in April? May 01 $11 $0 +1%
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Apr 27 $74 $0 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $136 $0 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 18 $78 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 18 $82 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $74 $0 -0%
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 16 $76 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $150 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? Apr 15 $81 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 15 $83 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $158 $0 -0%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 14 $125 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $83 $0 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 13 $160 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $83 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on April Apr 13 $80 $0 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? Apr 13 $75 $0 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 12 $131 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 11 $127 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 11 $77 $0 -0%
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 10 $76 $0 -0%
Will Scott Bessent be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 10 $82 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Solana reach $130 in June? BUY No 100¢ $29 1h
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $9 3h
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $9 5h
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $37 5d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $14 5d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $14 5d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $13 6d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $13 7d
Will Monte win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 100¢ $15 11d
Will Monte win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 100¢ $15 12d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $9 12d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $9 13d
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $14 13d
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $14 14d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 99¢ $16 22d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $14 23d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $14 23d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL No 100¢ $14 23d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY No 100¢ $14 23d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $10 27d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $10 27d
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $33 28d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $18 28d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $18 28d
Colorado Rockies vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Colorado Rockies 37¢ $4 29d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $12 30d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $12 30d
Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $13 30d
Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $13 31d
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $81 33d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $65.99 · official $65.99 (match) · 228 history records