Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T17:08:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
90 0x90bb…531f sports 454 markets active 0h ago coverage 49d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 49d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (57 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$8,359 (+28%) realized +$8,744 · open −$385
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate39%171W / 273L
Drawdown41%max
Avg bet$65per market
Trades / day56.6pace
Fees−$529est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$213now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 49d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% +$2,244
other 2% +$183
crypto 1% −$23
world 0% −$49
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (57 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-0.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 252 -12.1% -20.4% 40% 37% -3.7%
≤30d 349 -3.4% -12.6% 41% 38% -1.8%
≤90d 444 +10.5% -0.0% 39% 36% -1.0%
all 444 +10.5% -0.0% 39% 36% -1.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover56.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -0.0% 36% -1.0%
10% ← realistic here -9.6% 34% -10.4%
15% -18.3% 32% -19.1%
20% -26.3% 27% -27.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +35% → late -14% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$78 vs −$40 · ×1.96 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.26 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

49d coverage
Net worth$213
Realized+$8,744
Unrealized−$385
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses171 / 273
Est. fees paid−$529
Open positions10
Markets (closed)444 / 454
History coverage49d ⚠
Avg bet$65
Trades / day56.6
Drawdown41%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 444 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
KBO: NC Dinos vs. KT Wiz NC Dinos 31¢ 48¢ $57 $89 +$32 (+56%)
Dota 2: Lindorfitos vs x5 Gaming (BO3) - The International South America Closed Qualifier Playoffs x5 Gaming 15¢ 39¢ $30 $78 +$48 (+160%)
HSBC Championships: Jack Pinnington Jones vs Denis Shapovalov Jack Pinnington Jones 37¢ 28¢ $28 $21 −$7 (-26%)
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner Solary 46¢ 22¢ $28 $13 −$15 (-53%)
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Francesca Jones Francesca Jones 28¢ 10¢ $28 $10 −$18 (-62%)
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner Solary 19¢ 0¢ $241 $1 −$241 (-100%)
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 1 Winner Solary 19¢ 0¢ $104 $0 −$104 (-100%)
Dublin: Juan Pablo Ficovich vs Nicolas Mejia Juan Pablo Ficovich 5¢ 0¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-99%)
Dota 2: Lindorfitos vs x5 Gaming - Game 1 Winner Lindorfitos 21¢ 0¢ $36 $0 −$36 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner FUT Esports 40¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La Jun 15 $41 −$41 -100%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Nottingham 2: Darwin Blanch vs Zhizhen Zhang Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Zachary Svajda Jun 15 $114 +$207 +182%
Halle Open: Nuno Borges vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 15 $29 +$14 +48%
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce Jun 15 $59 −$13 -22%
Dota 2: summer bear vs Hive - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $29 +$37 +125%
Nottingham 2: Luca Nardi vs Remy Bertola Jun 15 $29 −$29 -100%
Nottingham 2: Oliver Tarvet vs Roman Safiullin Jun 15 $86 −$86 -100%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $59 +$59 +100%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Katerina Siniakova vs Yue Yu Jun 15 $117 +$74 +63%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $110 −$110 -100%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Young Ninjas - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $69 +$21 +31%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Suzan Lamens vs Dalma Galfi Jun 15 $112 +$157 +140%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Young Ninjas (BO3) - European Pro League Series Jun 15 $84 −$6 -7%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Diane Parry vs Ella Seidel Jun 15 $60 +$17 +29%
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Cloud Rising - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $29 +$17 +60%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $148 −$6 -4%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $107 −$107 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $91 −$91 -100%
ITF Cuiaba: Antonia Rivera vs Carolina Alves Jun 15 $79 −$79 -100%
Rainbow Six Siege: LOS vs LOUD (BO1) - South America League Stage 1 Gr Jun 14 $37 −$37 -100%
Call of Duty: Riyadh Falcons vs Carolina Royal Ravens (BO5) - Call of Jun 14 $18 +$28 +154%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $174 −$16 -9%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $28 +$17 +62%
Modena: Katarzyna Kawa vs Lucia Bronzetti Jun 14 $149 +$162 +108%
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs GenOne - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $27 −$27 -100%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $28 +$26 +94%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Power Rangers (BO3) - European Pro League Group Jun 14 $308 −$308 -100%
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs GenOne - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $301 −$61 -20%
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Stag Jun 14 $75 +$25 +32%
LoL: Solary vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $27 +$16 +61%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Power Rangers - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $11 −$11 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $24 −$24 -100%
ITF San Gregorio: Nadia Podoroska vs Lucciana Perez Alarcon Jun 14 $50 +$187 +371%
Nottingham 2: Shintaro Mochizuki vs Michael Zheng Jun 14 $52 −$52 -100%
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Alliance - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $27 −$27 -100%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs INOX Division - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $67 −$67 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $83 −$83 -100%
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $100 +$42 +42%
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur Jun 14 $32 −$32 -100%
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs KOLESIE - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $37 −$37 -100%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Antonia Ruzic vs Taylah Preston Jun 14 $28 +$21 +75%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $54 −$12 -21%
ITF Hurghada: Polina Iatcenko vs Martyna Kubka Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $14 −$14 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 14 $104 −$104 -100%
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs KOLESIE - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $58 −$58 -100%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $54 −$54 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $183 −$97 -53%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Lindorfitos vs x5 Gaming (BO3) - The International South Ameri BUY x5 Gaming 15¢ $30 12m
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner BUY Solary 46¢ $28 21m
HSBC Championships: Jack Pinnington Jones vs Denis Shapovalov BUY Jack Pinnington Jones 37¢ $28 28m
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Francesca Jones BUY Francesca Jones 28¢ $28 30m
Dublin: Juan Pablo Ficovich vs Nicolas Mejia BUY Juan Pablo Ficovich 5¢ $15 31m
Dublin: Juan Pablo Ficovich vs Nicolas Mejia BUY Juan Pablo Ficovich 5¢ $1 31m
Dublin: Juan Pablo Ficovich vs Nicolas Mejia BUY Juan Pablo Ficovich 5¢ $0 31m
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner BUY Solary 3¢ $9 51m
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner BUY Solary 3¢ $9 51m
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner BUY Solary 27¢ $26 51m
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner BUY Solary 27¢ $1 51m
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner BUY Solary 27¢ $27 51m
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner BUY Solary 27¢ $27 51m
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner BUY Solary 27¢ $27 51m
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner BUY Solary 38¢ $28 52m
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner BUY Solary 42¢ $28 52m
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner BUY Solary 44¢ $29 52m
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner BUY Solary 34¢ $29 52m
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY FUT Esports 40¢ $30 1h
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 1 Winner BUY Solary 17¢ $22 1h
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 1 Winner BUY Solary 17¢ $4 1h
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 1 Winner BUY Solary 17¢ $26 1h
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 1 Winner BUY Solary 22¢ $26 1h
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 1 Winner BUY Solary 22¢ $26 1h
Dota 2: Lindorfitos vs x5 Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY x5 Gaming 41¢ $20 1h
Dota 2: Lindorfitos vs x5 Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY x5 Gaming 56¢ $28 1h
Dota 2: Lindorfitos vs x5 Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Lindorfitos 20¢ $5 2h
Dota 2: Lindorfitos vs x5 Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Lindorfitos 20¢ $25 2h
Dota 2: Lindorfitos vs x5 Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Lindorfitos 22¢ $26 2h
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Zachary Svajda SELL Tommy Paul 100¢ $321 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $212.51 · official $226.51 · 3500 history records