Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T15:03:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
90 0x90bd…e850 world 54 markets active 2h ago coverage 490d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$11 (-0%) realized −$12 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate41%21W / 30L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$62per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$37now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 38% $0
sports 30% −$5
other 16% −$3
politics 7% $0
economics 7% $0
finance 1% +$1
weather 1% −$2
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +0.3% -9.3% 33% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 28 -0.0% -9.6% 36% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 42 -0.0% -9.5% 38% 0% -9.5%
all 51 -2.2% -11.5% 41% 4% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.5% 4% -9.8%
10% -20.0% 4% -18.5%
15% -27.7% 0% -26.3%
20% -34.8% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 59% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

490d coverage
Net worth$37
Realized−$12
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses21 / 30
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions3
Markets (closed)51 / 54
History coverage490d
Avg bet$62
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 51 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? No 83¢ 86¢ $34 $35 +$1 (+4%)
Xi Jinping out by June 30? No 98¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 92¢ 93¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 21 $31 $0 -1%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 20 $130 −$1 -0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 20 $32 $0 +1%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $31 +$1 +2%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 18 $12 $0 -0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 17 $34 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $70 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $52 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $35 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 13 $31 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $37 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 09 $31 $0 -0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $31 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 09 $30 $0 +1%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $30 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 08 $110 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $95 $0 -0%
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $4 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $109 +$1 +1%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $31 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 04 $48 +$1 +2%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 04 $30 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 01 $29 $0 +1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 31 $38 −$1 -3%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $54 −$2 -4%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 29 $30 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 29 $30 −$1 -2%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 27 $31 +$1 +2%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 24 $15 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 23 $5 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 21 $97 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 20 $30 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 19 $51 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 18 $2 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 17 $46 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 16 $32 $0 -0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 24 $241 $0 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $240 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $240 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 23 $241 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 21 $240 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 21 $240 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Dec 17 $2 $0 +4%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 40-45% of the vote in the South Korea election? Jun 05 $2 $0 +4%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2025? May 19 $1 $0 +3%
Will Elon tweet less than 300 times March 21-28? Mar 24 $3 −$3 -92%
Albany vs. Vermont Mar 03 $18 −$13 -74%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 42-43°F on March 3? Mar 03 $19 −$2 -9%
Will Brighton vs. Bournemouth end in a draw? Mar 03 $14 +$5 +35%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 by December 31, 2025? Feb 23 $15 $0 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 83¢ $34 1h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 85¢ $31 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 86¢ $31 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 50¢ $32 3d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 51¢ $32 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $32 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $22 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $10 3d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 90¢ $20 4d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 90¢ $12 4d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 88¢ $31 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $10 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $2 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $12 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 54¢ $14 5d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 54¢ $21 5d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 54¢ $34 5d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $34 5d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $34 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $35 7d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $35 7d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $34 7d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $34 7d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 41¢ $27 8d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 41¢ $4 8d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 41¢ $9 8d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 41¢ $22 8d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $34 8d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $34 8d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $2 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.74 · official $35.47 · 217 history records