Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T16:46:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
90 0x90be…ec8b crypto 28 markets active 1h ago coverage 144d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$57 (-13%) realized −$57 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate57%16W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 144d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 94% −$69
sports 6% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-19.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -6.2% -15.1% 60% 56% -24.6%
≤30d 25 -6.2% -15.1% 60% 56% -24.6%
≤90d 25 -6.2% -15.1% 60% 56% -24.6%
all 28 -11.3% -19.7% 57% 54% -27.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.7% 54% -27.9%
10% -27.4% 39% -34.8%
15% -34.4% 29% -41.1%
20% -40.9% 11% -46.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$14 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

144d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$57
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses16 / 12
Open positions0
Markets (closed)28 / 28
History coverage144d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 28 Trades
no open positions (8 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 19 $62 −$60 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 19 $46 +$12 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 19 $31 +$3 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 19 $61 +$11 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 19 $27 +$8 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 19 $20 +$6 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 19 $26 −$18 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 19 $10 +$5 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 19 $2 +$1 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 19 $2 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$11 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $15 −$10 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$5 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$2 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$3 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$3 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $18 −$18 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 15 $15 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$15 +276%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$4 +40%
Valorant: Misa Esports vs S2G Esports (BO3) - VCL Türkiye: Birlik Kick Jan 26 $8 −$8 -100%
Valorant: Team Envy vs Cloud9 (BO3) - VCT Americas Kickoff Playoffs Jan 26 $5 +$2 +37%
Heat vs. Suns Jan 26 $15 −$15 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET SELL Up 80¢ $58 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET SELL Up 75¢ $34 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET SELL Down 89¢ $35 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET SELL Down 70¢ $38 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET SELL Down 15¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET SELL Up 38¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET SELL Up 78¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET SELL Up 94¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $2 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 72 history records