Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T17:26:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
90 0x90be…cd7a crypto 15 markets active 2h ago coverage 593d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$110 (-28%) realized −$116 · open +$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -35% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -41% what you keep after slip
Net edge-41%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate29%4W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$53now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days+$5
14 days+$5
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 49% +$2
other 38% −$94
crypto 13% −$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-41.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +93.2% +74.8% 100% 100% +74.8%
≤30d 1 +93.2% +74.8% 100% 100% +74.8%
≤90d 1 +93.2% +74.8% 100% 100% +74.8%
all 14 -35.3% -41.4% 29% 29% -40.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -41.4% 29% -40.0%
10% -47.0% 29% -45.7%
15% -52.1% 29% -51.0%
20% -56.8% 29% -55.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 84% · top 2 92% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +93% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -35% · $-wt -34% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -73% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$22 · ×1.23 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.49 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

593d coverage
Net worth$53
Realized−$116
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses4 / 10
Open positions1
Markets (closed)14 / 15
History coverage593d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Yes 89¢ 100¢ $47 $53 +$6 (+12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 20 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Mar 04 $7 −$7 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Mar 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Mar 04 $4 +$4 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Mar 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Mar 04 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Mar 04 $4 +$9 +218%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Mar 04 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Mar 04 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Mar 04 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Mar 04 $4 −$1 -25%
Will Mike Tyson win his boxing match against Jake Paul? Jan 25 $100 −$100 -100%
Will a Republican win Nevada Presidential Election? Nov 15 $100 +$92 +92%
Will a Republican win Minnesota in the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 06 $90 −$90 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $47 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $2 109d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $5 109d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 109d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $2 109d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $8 109d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $4 109d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 109d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $1 109d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 109d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $2 109d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 109d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $1 109d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $1 109d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $1 109d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET SELL Up 90¢ $13 109d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $1 109d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 109d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 109d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 109d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $2 109d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $4 109d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $5 109d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $2 109d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $1 109d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET SELL Up 93¢ $6 109d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $3 109d
Will Mike Tyson win his boxing match against Jake Paul? BUY Yes 27¢ $100 582d
Will a Republican win Nevada Presidential Election? BUY Yes 52¢ $100 593d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $52.65 · official $52.65 (match) · 35 history records