Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T17:32:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
90 0x90bf…354a other 146 markets active 2h ago coverage 258d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$96 (-8%) realized −$102 · open +$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate28%39W / 100L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit11%portable
Net worth$102now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$12
14 days−$6
30 days−$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 87% −$117
politics 7% $0
sports 4% +$16
crypto 1% −$5
world 1% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-23.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +291.2% +253.9% 100% 100% +253.9%
≤30d 5 -21.8% -29.2% 20% 20% -47.9%
≤90d 14 -38.2% -44.1% 21% 21% -38.2%
all 139 -15.4% -23.5% 28% 27% -19.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.5% 27% -19.6%
10% -30.8% 27% -27.3%
15% -37.5% 26% -34.3%
20% -43.6% 24% -40.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -32% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -24% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$4 · ×1.86 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

258d coverage
Net worth$102
Realized−$102
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses39 / 100
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions6
Markets (closed)139 / 146
History coverage258d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit11%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 139 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 68¢ 57¢ $40 $34 −$6 (-15%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 13¢ $19 $25 +$6 (+33%)
Abstract FDV above $3B one day after launch? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $15 $18 +$3 (+21%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $12 $14 +$1 (+12%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $5 $7 +$1 (+27%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? No 18¢ 18¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 88 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $4 +$12 +291%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $3 −$2 -97%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-17? May 18 $3 +$7 +197%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET May 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET May 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET May 14 $1 +$1 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET May 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET May 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET May 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET May 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will 1. FC Köln win on 2026-05-16? May 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-04? Mar 05 $6 +$4 +70%
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-03-04? Mar 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-03-04? Mar 04 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Fulham FC win on 2026-03-04? Mar 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Getafe CF win on 2026-03-02? Mar 03 $1 +$11 +1011%
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-03-03? Mar 02 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-03-03? Mar 02 $7 −$7 -100%
Backpack FDV above $700M one day after launch? Mar 02 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-01-18? Jan 14 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-01-18? Jan 14 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Fulham FC win on 2026-01-17? Jan 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-01-17? Jan 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Manchester United FC vs. Manchester City FC end in a draw? Jan 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-01-17? Jan 14 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-01-17? Jan 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Burnley FC win on 2026-01-17? Jan 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Brentford FC win on 2025-12-20? Dec 24 $5 +$5 +113%
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2025-12-20? Dec 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Everton FC win on 2025-12-20? Dec 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2025-12-20? Dec 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2025-12-20? Dec 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Will West Ham United FC win on 2025-12-20? Dec 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2025-12-20? Dec 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Everton win on 2025-12-02? Dec 19 $2 +$4 +285%
Will Brentford win on 2025-12-03? Dec 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Tottenham win on 2025-12-02? Dec 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Dec 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2025-11-29? Dec 01 $3 +$7 +212%
Will Manchester United win on 2025-11-30? Dec 01 $3 +$7 +212%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-11-29? Nov 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Everton win on 2025-11-29? Nov 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Will West Ham win on 2025-11-30? Nov 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Tottenham win on 2025-11-29? Nov 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Monad market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? Nov 28 $22 $0 +0%
Will Aston Villa win on 2025-11-23? Nov 24 $4 +$6 +156%
Will Manchester United win on 2025-11-24? Nov 23 $11 −$11 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $40 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 18¢ $6 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 67¢ $41 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $40 17h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 25¢ $4 5d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 5d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? AND Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia BUY 6¢ $2 6d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $10 8d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 8d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 8d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 23d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $13 23d
Abstract FDV above $3B one day after launch? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 23d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 31¢ $6 23d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $9 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $1 39d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $1 39d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 39d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $1 39d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $1 39d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 39d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 14¢ $1 39d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $1 39d
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-17? BUY Yes 33¢ $3 39d
Will 1. FC Köln win on 2026-05-16? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 39d
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-03-04? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 110d
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-03-04? BUY Yes 39¢ $4 110d
Will Fulham FC win on 2026-03-04? BUY Yes 47¢ $5 110d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-04? BUY Yes 59¢ $6 110d
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-03-03? BUY Yes 34¢ $3 112d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $102.45 · official $103.62 · 261 history records