Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T23:14:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
90 0x90c0…3cc5 crypto 48 markets active 1h ago coverage 30d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
Total PnL −$18 (-3%) realized −$25 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate60%29W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day3.8pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$15
14 days−$15
30 days−$36
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 67% −$30
crypto 29% +$10
other 3% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-12.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -12.6% -21.0% 29% 14% -22.6%
≤30d 29 -11.9% -20.3% 45% 17% -15.9%
≤90d 48 -3.5% -12.7% 60% 25% -13.1%
all 48 -3.5% -12.7% 60% 25% -13.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.7% 25% -13.1%
10% -21.1% 17% -21.4%
15% -28.7% 10% -29.0%
20% -35.7% 4% -36.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 55% · top 2 60% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
52% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$4 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

30d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$25
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses29 / 19
Open positions0
Markets (closed)48 / 48
History coverage30d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day3.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 48 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $13 −$5 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$4 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$1 +10%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 14 $15 −$2 -14%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $20 −$5 -23%
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 12 $22 −$3 -14%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25? May 25 $50 −$12 -24%
Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026? May 25 $60 −$27 -45%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 24 $60 −$2 -3%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 24 $60 −$3 -6%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 22 $65 +$27 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET May 22 $1 $0 -14%
Iran closes its airspace by May 21? May 22 $45 +$1 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET May 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET May 21 $2 $0 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 20, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET May 20 $1 $0 -3%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 20, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET May 20 $2 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 20, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET May 20 $1 $0 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 20, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET May 20 $1 −$1 -75%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 20, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET May 20 $1 +$1 +81%
Iran closes its airspace by May 18? May 17 $36 −$5 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET May 16 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET May 16 $5 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET May 16 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET May 16 $5 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET May 16 $1 −$1 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET May 16 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET May 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET May 15 $10 +$2 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET May 15 $1 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET May 15 $16 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET May 15 $6 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET May 15 $11 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET May 15 $1 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET May 15 $20 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET May 15 $2 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET May 15 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET May 15 $16 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET May 15 $5 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET May 15 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET May 15 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET May 15 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET May 15 $5 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET May 15 $10 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET May 15 $1 $0 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET May 15 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET May 15 $1 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 26¢ $8 35m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 40¢ $13 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET SELL Up 57¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $10 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? SELL No 54¢ $13 4h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? BUY No 63¢ $15 4h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? SELL No 61¢ $15 2d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 78¢ $20 2d
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL Yes 40¢ $19 2d
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY Yes 46¢ $22 2d
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25? SELL No 10¢ $18 20d
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25? BUY No 11¢ $20 20d
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25? SELL No 2¢ $20 20d
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25? BUY No 4¢ $30 20d
Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 33¢ $33 20d
Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 60¢ $60 20d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 61¢ $58 21d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 63¢ $60 21d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 70¢ $56 21d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 74¢ $60 21d
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? SELL Yes 92¢ $45 23d
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? BUY Yes 37¢ $5 23d
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? BUY Yes 31¢ $5 23d
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 23d
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? SELL No 83¢ $29 23d
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? BUY No 86¢ $30 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET SELL Down 66¢ $1 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $1 23d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 154 history records