Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T19:10:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
90 0x90c3…3709 sports 21 markets active 1h ago coverage 79d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$235 (+23%) realized +$226 · open +$9
Gross ROI / mkt +76% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +59% what you keep after slip
Net edge+59%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%5W / 15L
Drawdown56%max
Avg bet$48per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$278now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$127
7 days+$243
14 days+$246
30 days+$246
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 52% +$2
other 46% +$243
crypto 2% $0
world 1% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)+59.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +53.4% +38.8% 100% 100% +37.9%
≤30d 12 +160.6% +135.8% 42% 42% +21.4%
≤90d 20 +76.1% +59.4% 25% 25% +17.9%
all 20 +76.1% +59.4% 25% 25% +17.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +59.4% 25% +17.9%
10% +44.1% 25% +6.6%
15% +30.2% 25% -3.7%
20% +17.4% 20% -13.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 63% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +31% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +76% · $-wt +31% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -60% → late +213% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$77 vs −$12 · ×6.48 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.49 per $1 lost it wins $2.49
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

79d coverage
Net worth$278
Realized+$226
Unrealized+$9
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses5 / 15
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)20 / 21
History coverage79d
Avg bet$48
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown56%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 20 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 3.5 Under 78¢ 80¢ $270 $278 +$9 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $269 +$127 +47%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $194 +$115 +60%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $90 +$112 +124%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $79 −$78 -98%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Diane Parry vs Ella Seidel Jun 14 $13 −$13 -97%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 14 $40 −$39 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $7 +$23 +307%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $6 +$7 +117%
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Tatjana Maria Jun 12 $2 $0 -10%
Libema Open: Benjamin Bonzi vs Alex de Minaur Jun 12 $4 −$4 -98%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $2 −$2 -97%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? Apr 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30? Apr 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? Apr 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Apr 07 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Apr 06 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Apr 06 $5 $0 -1%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 6, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Apr 06 $5 $0 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 78¢ $10 53m
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 78¢ $10 54m
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 78¢ $251 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $50 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $50 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $168 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $20 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $5 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $169 2d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY BetBoom Team 44¢ $90 9d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $79 9d
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Diane Parry vs Ella Seidel BUY Ella Seidel $13 10d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta BUY BetBoom Team 19¢ $40 10d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL MOUZ 41¢ $18 11d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL MOUZ 31¢ $10 11d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL MOUZ 16¢ $2 11d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ $5 11d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ $3 11d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY Monte 25¢ $2 11d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag SELL Aurora Gaming 29¢ $1 12d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag SELL Aurora Gaming 32¢ $1 12d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag SELL Aurora Gaming 35¢ $1 12d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag SELL Aurora Gaming 34¢ $1 12d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag SELL Aurora Gaming 35¢ $1 12d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag SELL Aurora Gaming 33¢ $1 12d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag SELL Aurora Gaming 33¢ $0 12d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag SELL Aurora Gaming 33¢ $1 12d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag SELL Aurora Gaming 30¢ $1 12d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag SELL Aurora Gaming 31¢ $1 12d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag SELL Aurora Gaming 32¢ $1 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $278.48 · official $275.02 · 1088 history records