Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T21:16:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
90 0x90c6…52bc sports 54 markets active 1h ago coverage 21d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$753 (+9%) realized +$753 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate50%27W / 27L
Drawdown96%max
Avg bet$157per market
Trades / day4.1pace
Fees−$134est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$186
7 days+$33
14 days−$28
30 days+$810
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% +$620
other 3% +$190
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-8.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +4.0% -5.9% 50% 40% -7.7%
≤30d 54 +1.2% -8.4% 50% 48% -0.9%
≤90d 54 +1.2% -8.4% 50% 48% -0.9%
all 54 +1.2% -8.4% 50% 48% -0.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.4% 48% -0.9%
10% -17.2% 46% -10.3%
15% -25.2% 44% -19.0%
20% -32.5% 44% -27.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$163 vs −$133 · ×1.23 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.23 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

21d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$753
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses27 / 27
Est. fees paid−$134
Open positions0
Markets (closed)54 / 54
History coverage21d
Avg bet$157
Trades / day4.1
Drawdown96%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 54 Trades
no open positions (13 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $466 +$41 +9%
Edin Džeko: 1+ goals Jun 24 $66 −$65 -98%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $117 −$115 -98%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $107 +$88 +82%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals Jun 23 $98 +$231 +234%
Targu Mures: Miguel Damas vs Benjamin Hassan Jun 23 $116 −$18 -15%
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals Jun 22 $121 +$24 +20%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $164 +$83 +51%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $273 −$110 -40%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $129 −$126 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $240 −$237 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $119 −$118 -99%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
CD Universidad Católica vs. CD Universidad de Concepción: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $171 +$191 +112%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $100 +$71 +71%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $287 +$295 +103%
CD Concepción vs. CD Limache: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $152 +$145 +95%
CD Coquimbo Unido vs. O'Higgins FC: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $142 −$140 -98%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $172 −$170 -98%
Saudi Arabia vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $147 −$145 -98%
Maghreb AS de Fès vs. AS FAR: O/U 1.5 Jun 09 $152 −$150 -98%
UD Almería vs. CD Castellón: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $129 +$122 +95%
Togo vs. Benin: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $169 +$260 +154%
Hungary vs. Kazakhstan: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $97 +$72 +74%
DR Congo vs. Chile: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $381 +$583 +153%
DR Congo vs. Chile: O/U 3.5 Jun 09 $1 −$1 -98%
China PR vs. Thailand: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $113 −$111 -98%
Venezuela vs. Türkiye: O/U 3.5 Jun 08 $98 −$98 -100%
FathUnionSport vs. Difaâ Hassani El Jadida: O/U 1.5 Jun 08 $240 −$240 -100%
Niger vs. Mauritania: O/U 1.5 Jun 08 $233 −$230 -98%
England vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 08 $116 −$116 -100%
Panama vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 08 $102 −$102 -100%
Fukushima United FC vs. FC Ryūkyū: O/U 2.5 Jun 08 $124 −$124 -100%
Greece vs. Italy: O/U 2.5 Jun 08 $105 −$105 -100%
Indonesia vs. Oman: O/U 3.5 Jun 08 $80 −$80 -100%
Armenia vs. Kazakhstan: O/U 2.5 Jun 08 $130 −$130 -100%
Denmark vs. Ukraine: O/U 4.5 Jun 08 $160 −$160 -100%
Sagan Tosu vs. Shōnan Bellmāre: O/U 2.5 Jun 08 $140 −$140 -100%
Liechtenstein vs. Cyprus: O/U 2.5 Jun 08 $264 −$264 -100%
Ōita Trinita vs. Montedio Yamagata: O/U 2.5 Jun 08 $191 −$191 -100%
Denmark vs. Ukraine: O/U 2.5 Jun 07 $194 +$216 +112%
Prostejov: Sebastian Baez vs Alex Molcan Jun 07 $196 +$68 +35%
Venezuela vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 06 $165 +$128 +78%
Romania vs. Wales: O/U 2.5 Jun 06 $276 +$369 +134%
Yokohama F·Marinos vs. Shimizu S-Pulse: O/U 1.5 Jun 06 $167 +$127 +76%
Tōkyō Verdy vs. Gamba Ōsaka: O/U 2.5 Jun 06 $102 +$166 +162%
Yokohama FC vs. Renofa Yamaguchi FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 06 $127 +$103 +81%
Azerbaijan vs. Malta: O/U 1.5 Jun 05 $127 +$91 +71%
Moldova vs. Bulgaria: O/U 2.5 Jun 05 $116 +$166 +143%
Thailand vs. Kuwait: O/U 3.5 Jun 05 $51 +$33 +66%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $441 42m
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $239 44m
Edin Džeko: 1+ goals BUY Yes 28¢ $66 1h
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 13¢ $66 1h
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $226 2h
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 41¢ $117 21h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 7.5 Total Corners SELL Over 99¢ $195 23h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 52¢ $25 24h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 54¢ $82 25h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals SELL Yes 99¢ $329 27h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals BUY Yes 29¢ $98 30h
Targu Mures: Miguel Damas vs Benjamin Hassan SELL Miguel Damas 47¢ $99 30h
Targu Mures: Miguel Damas vs Benjamin Hassan BUY Miguel Damas 54¢ $116 30h
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals SELL Yes 47¢ $146 47h
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals BUY Yes 38¢ $121 2d
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $247 2d
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 65¢ $164 2d
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 31¢ $163 2d
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $273 2d
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia O/U 2.5 BUY Over 20¢ $129 6d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $240 9d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $119 9d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 32¢ $102 9d
CD Universidad Católica vs. CD Universidad de Concepción: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $362 9d
CD Universidad Católica vs. CD Universidad de Concepción: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $171 9d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 99¢ $171 9d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 57¢ $100 9d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $582 9d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $287 10d
CD Concepción vs. CD Limache: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $297 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.12 (match) · 99 history records