Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T01:16:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
90 0x90c8…9617 other 116 markets active 2h ago coverage 138d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 138d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! high turnover
Total PnL +$675 (+2%) realized +$907 · open −$232
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate55%42W / 35L
Whale WR62%big bets
Drawdown88%max
Avg bet$337per market
Trades / day23.7pace
Fees−$710est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$3,160now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$86
7 days+$549
14 days+$2,250
30 days+$2,338
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 60% +$1,369
other 27% −$75
politics 7% −$140
world 3% −$110
crypto 2% +$50
economics 0% −$16
finance 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-16.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -2.4% -11.7% 75% 17% -4.5%
≤30d 27 -2.9% -12.1% 63% 15% +1.2%
≤90d 45 -10.6% -19.1% 51% 16% -5.4%
all 77 -7.6% -16.4% 55% 21% -5.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.4% 21% -5.7%
10% ← realistic here -24.4% 13% -14.7%
15% -31.7% 6% -22.9%
20% -38.4% 6% -30.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 56% · top 2 75% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
52% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 62% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -5% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
19.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$69 vs −$52 · ×1.34 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.82 per $1 lost it wins $1.82
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

138d coverage
Net worth$3,160
Realized+$907
Unrealized−$232
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses42 / 35
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Est. fees paid−$710
Open positions39
Markets (closed)77 / 116
History coverage138d ⚠
Avg bet$337
Trades / day23.7
Drawdown88%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 39 History 77 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $680 $660 −$20 (-3%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $292 $352 +$60 (+21%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $296 $287 −$10 (-3%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 8¢ $287 $233 −$54 (-19%)
Will Denver Nuggets win the 2027 NBA Finals? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $190 $192 +$2 (+1%)
Will Miami Heat win the 2027 NBA Finals? Yes 3¢ 4¢ $139 $175 +$36 (+26%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $153 $171 +$18 (+12%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $143 $146 +$3 (+2%)
Base FDV above $2B one day after launch? Yes 78¢ 66¢ $156 $132 −$24 (-15%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $147 $120 −$27 (-18%)
Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $104 $113 +$8 (+8%)
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 3¢ 1¢ $159 $77 −$82 (-52%)
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $110 $63 −$47 (-42%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $58 $59 +$1 (+1%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $57 $47 −$11 (-18%)
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 5¢ 7¢ $32 $41 +$9 (+29%)
Will Phoenix Suns win the 2027 NBA Finals? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $47 $37 −$10 (-21%)
Will Detroit Pistons win the 2027 NBA Finals? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $41 $36 −$5 (-13%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $43 $36 −$8 (-18%)
Will Los Angeles Lakers win the 2027 NBA Finals? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $32 $34 +$2 (+6%)
Will Saudi Arabia be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Yes 64¢ 57¢ $32 $29 −$3 (-10%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $28 $24 −$4 (-14%)
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $16 $15 −$1 (-6%)
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $17 $9 −$8 (-45%)
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $11 $9 −$2 (-18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1,504 +$78 +5%
Will Boston Celtics win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 17 $25 +$8 +30%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $521 +$38 +7%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $701 +$21 +3%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $65 +$4 +7%
Will Indiana Pacers win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 16 $10 +$4 +34%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $25 −$25 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $712 −$76 -11%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $150 −$37 -25%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $6,125 +$534 +9%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $28 +$2 +7%
Edi Rama out as Albania PM in 2026? Jun 12 $3 $0 +4%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $6,442 +$1,644 +26%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $298 +$42 +14%
Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $347 +$1 +0%
Will Karl-Anthony Towns win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 08 $168 +$15 +9%
LoL: FlyQuest vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 06 $96 −$2 -2%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 31 $1,538 +$160 +10%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 29 $47 +$1 +3%
Base FDV above $4B one day after launch? May 29 $106 +$7 +6%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? May 27 $137 −$5 -4%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? May 26 $270 +$21 +8%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 26 $144 −$19 -13%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 26 $29 −$11 -39%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 26 $22 −$5 -22%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 25 $146 −$18 -12%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 24 $129 −$42 -32%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 18 $1,697 −$35 -2%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 09 $257 −$51 -20%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 09 $35 $0 +0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 04 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? May 03 $624 +$44 +7%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 03 $2,366 −$496 -21%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 02 $22 +$2 +9%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 01 $1,277 −$431 -34%
Will Cooper Flagg win the 2025–26 NBA Rookie of the Year award? Apr 28 $1,242 +$195 +16%
Will Jaylen Brown win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Apr 20 $322 −$205 -64%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $25 −$19 -77%
Will the Miami Heat win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $31 −$6 -19%
Will Kon Knueppel win the 2025–26 NBA Rookie of the Year award? Apr 15 $65 +$14 +22%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-04-14? Apr 15 $17 −$17 -100%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? Apr 13 $211 $0 +0%
Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 01 $37 −$37 -100%
Celtics vs. Hornets Mar 30 $20 +$16 +82%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? Mar 21 $440 $0 +0%
Will Nikola Jokic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Mar 02 $20 $0 -2%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Mar 01 $400 $0 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Feb 27 $100 −$16 -16%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 22 $20 −$3 -17%
Les Wexner arrested by March 31? Feb 22 $32 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Detroit Pistons win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 1h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $700 2h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $16 3h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 3h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 4h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 97¢ $733 4h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 97¢ $849 4h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 92¢ $1,504 4h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $27 5h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $6 7h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $35 7h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $11 7h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 7h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $4 7h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $80 11h
Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 12h
Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 12h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $32 12h
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 12h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $23 12h
Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 13h
Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 13h
Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 13h
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 15h
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 15h
Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 17h
Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 17h
Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 18h
Will Detroit Pistons win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 19h
Will Detroit Pistons win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,159.51 · official $3,160.59 (match) · 3500 history records