Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T01:56:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
90 0x90c8…4573 sports 1192 markets active 1h ago coverage 151d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$496 (-1%) realized −$526 · open +$30
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate72%844W / 327L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day17.2pace
Fees−$97est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$430now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$708
7 days−$1,144
14 days−$985
30 days−$966
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 53% −$146
other 39% −$547
finance 4% +$38
world 2% +$18
crypto 2% −$45
politics 0% $0
economics 0% $0
tech 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 80 -12.9% -21.2% 62% 36% -23.2%
≤30d 377 -1.1% -10.5% 79% 38% -12.6%
≤90d 1162 -1.8% -11.1% 72% 40% -11.3%
all 1171 -1.5% -10.8% 72% 41% -11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.8% 41% -11.3%
10% -19.4% 23% -19.8%
15% -27.2% 15% -27.5%
20% -34.3% 10% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
43% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$15 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

151d coverage
Net worth$430
Realized−$526
Unrealized+$30
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses844 / 327
Est. fees paid−$97
Open positions21
Markets (closed)1171 / 1192
History coverage151d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day17.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 21 History 1171 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 2.5 Over 87¢ 100¢ $214 $246 +$32 (+15%)
Haiti leading at halftime? No 96¢ 100¢ $61 $64 +$3 (+4%)
Brazil leading at halftime? Yes 97¢ 100¢ $50 $52 +$2 (+3%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $5 $8 +$3 (+64%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 12¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+41%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+19%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+16%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+14%)
Will Donald Trump attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? No 98¢ 99¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will Marco Rubio attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? No 97¢ 93¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? Yes 69¢ 48¢ $6 $4 −$2 (-31%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-18%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-23%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-26%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 7¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-33%)
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-54%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-7%)
Will Steve Witkoff attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Yes 91¢ 75¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-17%)
Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Yes 90¢ 69¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-23%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes 31¢ 14¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-56%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Yes 33¢ 2¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-95%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Jun 20 $1 $0 +2%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 20 $1 $0 +1%
Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027? Jun 20 $1 $0 +1%
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 20 $2 $0 +5%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? Jun 20 $3 $0 +5%
Morocco leading at halftime? Jun 20 $50 +$11 +21%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $35 −$35 -100%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $101 −$100 -99%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $93 −$85 -91%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $67 +$26 +40%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $119 −$119 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $165 −$165 -100%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $194 −$194 -100%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $53 +$3 +5%
Canada vs. Qatar: Canada O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $55 +$3 +6%
Spread: Canada (-3.5) Jun 18 $43 −$38 -88%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $5 $0 -7%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? Jun 18 $52 −$14 -27%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $231 −$37 -16%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $201 +$30 +15%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $60 +$6 +10%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $114 +$7 +6%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $222 +$68 +31%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? Jun 17 $126 −$11 -9%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Antonio Nusa: 1+ goals Jun 17 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $115 +$4 +3%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $133 −$2 -1%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $81 +$35 +43%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $325 −$322 -99%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $38 +$6 +16%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $25 +$6 +24%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $50 −$1 -2%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 16 $101 −$7 -7%
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $25 +$3 +12%
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $25 +$3 +11%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $50 +$19 +38%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $75 +$13 +17%
Spain to score first vs. Cabo Verde? Jun 16 $55 −$55 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $201 −$201 -100%
Spread: Uruguay (-2.5) Jun 16 $50 +$7 +13%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? Jun 16 $154 +$61 +40%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $50 +$17 +34%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $43 +$10 +24%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $201 +$24 +12%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $103 +$30 +29%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $125 +$36 +28%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $32 +$21 +65%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $200 +$7 +4%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $201 +$29 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 2.5 BUY Over 87¢ $215 40m
Brazil leading at halftime? BUY Yes 97¢ $50 51m
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? SELL No 96¢ $1 1h
Iran Nuke before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $1 1h
Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027? SELL No 85¢ $1 1h
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL Yes 74¢ $1 1h
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? SELL No 93¢ $3 1h
Haiti leading at halftime? BUY No 96¢ $61 1h
Morocco leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $61 1h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 91¢ $35 3h
Morocco leading at halftime? BUY Yes 82¢ $50 3h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 1.5 BUY Over 79¢ $101 3h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 7¢ $8 4h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 75¢ $93 5h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $93 5h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 71¢ $67 6h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 95¢ $53 26h
Canada vs. Qatar: Canada O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $59 27h
Spread: Canada (-3.5) SELL Qatar 11¢ $5 27h
Canada vs. Qatar: Canada O/U 2.5 BUY Over 94¢ $55 27h
Spread: Canada (-3.5) BUY Qatar 87¢ $43 28h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $5 28h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? SELL Yes 37¢ $38 28h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY No 97¢ $34 29h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY No 98¢ $60 29h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY No 97¢ $100 29h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 66¢ $194 29h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 77¢ $231 30h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? SELL No 94¢ $231 31h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 74¢ $140 33h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $430.27 · official $430.28 (match) · 3263 history records