Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T15:21:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
90 0x90cb…4622 sports 866 markets active 0h ago coverage 90d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$547 (-5%) realized −$532 · open −$15
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate48%411W / 451L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day13.3pace
Fees−$113est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$35now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$171
7 days−$168
14 days−$86
30 days−$188
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 87% −$714
other 13% +$57
crypto 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-15.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 48 -9.8% -18.4% 44% 42% -23.2%
≤30d 236 -7.7% -16.5% 44% 44% -14.3%
≤90d 862 -6.8% -15.7% 48% 47% -15.6%
all 862 -6.8% -15.7% 48% 47% -15.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.7% 47% -15.6%
10% -23.8% 46% -23.6%
15% -31.1% 43% -31.0%
20% -37.9% 36% -37.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$10 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

90d coverage
Net worth$35
Realized−$532
Unrealized−$15
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses411 / 451
Est. fees paid−$113
Open positions5
Markets (closed)862 / 866
History coverage90d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day13.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 862 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves - Map 2 Winner K27 47¢ 46¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $8 −$2 (-25%)
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5 Over 64¢ 45¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-30%)
Will Alexander Bublik be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes $10 $6 −$4 (-40%)
Will a player representing Brazil be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ $10 $4 −$6 (-55%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 231 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Detroit Tigers vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 16 $19 −$19 -100%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 16 $7 +$6 +85%
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will a player representing England be the top goalscorer at the 2026 F Jun 16 $10 −$2 -18%
Will a player representing Argentina be the top goalscorer at the 2026 Jun 16 $10 −$2 -16%
Halle Open: Karen Khachanov vs Ethan Quinn Jun 16 $15 −$15 -99%
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs HyperSpirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $20 +$8 +41%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs HyperSpirit (BO3) - European Pro Leagu Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Daniil Medvedev be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 16 $10 −$1 -14%
Will Alexander Zverev be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 16 $10 −$1 -12%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $10 −$1 -10%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $10 $0 +4%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $46 −$46 -99%
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $10 −$1 -5%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $10 +$4 +38%
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $20 $0 -2%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $40 −$40 -99%
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $10 −$1 -7%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Zachary Svajda Jun 15 $20 +$8 +39%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Nottingham 2: Oliver Tarvet vs Roman Safiullin Jun 15 $10 +$6 +60%
Halle Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Daniel Altmaier Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $86 +$60 +70%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$12 +121%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $20 +$32 +155%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $20 +$13 +62%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $20 +$15 +73%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $10 −$6 -63%
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur Jun 14 $20 −$20 -99%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $38 +$39 +101%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $29 +$9 +31%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $101 −$100 -99%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $20 +$11 +55%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $20 −$20 -99%
Stuttgart Open: Alexander Bublik vs Taylor Fritz Jun 13 $10 +$12 +118%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 13 $20 +$22 +109%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 +$12 +114%
Stuttgart Open: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Alexander Bublik Jun 12 $85 +$50 +59%
Libema Open: Zhizhen Zhang vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $20 −$20 -98%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5 Jun 11 $10 −$10 -99%
Stuttgart Open: Martin Landaluce vs Taylor Fritz Jun 11 $20 +$11 +52%
Stuttgart Open: Rinky Hijikata vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 11 $20 +$8 +42%
Stuttgart Open: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Alexander Bublik Jun 10 $20 +$9 +46%
Libema Open: Gabriel Diallo vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 09 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $20 +$6 +30%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves - Map 2 Winner BUY K27 47¢ $10 16m
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group SELL ex-RUBY 99¢ $13 24m
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY ex-RUBY 53¢ $7 49m
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet BUY Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard 49¢ $10 1h
Will a player representing England be the top goalscorer at the 2026 F SELL Yes 13¢ $8 1h
Will a player representing Argentina be the top goalscorer at the 2026 SELL Yes $9 1h
Halle Open: Karen Khachanov vs Ethan Quinn BUY Karen Khachanov 63¢ $15 3h
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino BUY Jakub Mensik 34¢ $20 4h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs HyperSpirit - Map 2 Winner SELL HyperSpirit 100¢ $29 4h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs HyperSpirit (BO3) - European Pro Leagu BUY HyperSpirit 30¢ $10 5h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs HyperSpirit - Map 2 Winner BUY HyperSpirit 70¢ $20 5h
Will Daniil Medvedev be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL Yes $9 7h
Will Alexander Zverev be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL Yes $9 7h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $9 7h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 18¢ $11 7h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 58¢ $46 19h
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $10 19h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $14 19h
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 63¢ $20 19h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 63¢ $40 21h
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $10 21h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 59¢ $101 24h
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Zachary Svajda SELL Tommy Paul 100¢ $28 24h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY FUT Esports 44¢ $20 24h
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Zachary Svajda BUY Tommy Paul 71¢ $20 34h
Halle Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Daniel Altmaier BUY Nikoloz Basilashvili 58¢ $10 34h
Nottingham 2: Oliver Tarvet vs Roman Safiullin BUY Roman Safiullin 62¢ $10 34h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 62¢ $20 34h
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Diego Lopes 58¢ $41 42h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 45¢ $10 42h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $34.72 · official $34.72 (match) · 1613 history records