Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T17:18:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
90 0x90d2…9174 sports 37 markets active 2h ago coverage 574d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL −$245 (-3%) realized −$250 · open +$5
Gross ROI / mkt -30% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate3%1W / 35L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$196per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$53now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 79% −$10
other 14% −$6
sports 7% −$224
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-37.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 2 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
all 36 -30.4% -37.1% 3% 3% -12.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -37.1% 3% -12.6%
10% -43.1% 3% -21.0%
15% -48.6% 3% -28.6%
20% -53.6% 3% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -30% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -33% → late -28% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$126 vs −$11 · ×11.19 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.34 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

574d coverage
Net worth$53
Realized−$250
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)3%
Wins / losses1 / 35
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)36 / 37
History coverage574d
Avg bet$196
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? No 45¢ 50¢ $49 $53 +$5 (+10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 01 $954 −$1 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 01 $1,911 −$2 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 31 $1,939 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 31 $920 −$1 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 11 $920 −$2 -0%
Trail Blazers vs. Jazz Oct 29 $6 −$6 -100%
MLB All-Star Game Jul 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Krzysztof Stanowski be the next President of Poland? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Lucknow Super Giants vs. Sunrisers Hyderabad May 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Celtics vs. Knicks May 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the next Government of Canada be a Conservative majority? May 13 $5 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in May? May 12 $5 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2025 Drivers Champion? May 08 $5 $0 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2025? May 07 $5 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200k in May? May 06 $5 $0 -0%
Will Andrea Kimi Antonelli be the 2025 Drivers Champion? May 05 $5 $0 -0%
Will France win Eurovision 2025? May 02 $5 $0 -1%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Apr 30 $5 $0 -1%
Will Han Duck-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 28 $5 $0 -2%
Will Lee Jun-seok be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 27 $5 $0 +0%
Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 24 $4 $0 +0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $5 $0 -0%
Will Inter Milan win the UEFA Champions League? Apr 17 $1 $0 -1%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $5 $0 -0%
Liverpool wins the Premier League? Apr 09 $19 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister? Apr 04 $3 $0 -2%
Will Barcelona win the UEFA Champions League? Apr 03 $2 $0 -4%
Will Paris Saint-Germain win the UEFA Champions League? Apr 02 $4 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Wizards win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the St. Louis Blues win the 2025 President’s Trophy? Apr 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Flyers vs. Red Wings Dec 19 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Kamala Harris get 80-82m votes in the 2024 U.S. Presidential Elec Dec 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Sabres vs. Canadiens Dec 18 $107 +$126 +117%
Warriors vs. Rockets Dec 12 $207 −$207 -100%
Will @PepMangione release another video by Dec 11? Dec 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Pacers vs. Raptors Dec 04 $23 −$23 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY No 45¢ $49 1h
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $953 89d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $954 89d
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $955 89d
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $956 90d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $984 90d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $985 90d
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $954 90d
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $955 90d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $919 90d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 100¢ $920 104d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $955 104d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $954 110d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $918 110d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $920 112d
Trail Blazers vs. Jazz BUY Jazz 46¢ $6 243d
MLB All-Star Game BUY American League 50¢ $7 349d
Lucknow Super Giants vs. Sunrisers Hyderabad BUY Lucknow Super Giants 56¢ $5 406d
Celtics vs. Knicks BUY Celtics 43¢ $5 409d
Will Krzysztof Stanowski be the next President of Poland? BUY Yes $1 410d
Will the next Government of Canada be a Conservative majority? SELL No 100¢ $5 412d
Will the next Government of Canada be a Conservative majority? BUY No 100¢ $5 412d
Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in May? SELL No 99¢ $5 413d
Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in May? BUY No 99¢ $5 413d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2025 Drivers Champion? SELL No 100¢ $5 417d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2025 Drivers Champion? BUY No 100¢ $5 417d
Will Albania win Eurovision 2025? SELL No 99¢ $5 418d
Will Albania win Eurovision 2025? BUY No 99¢ $5 418d
Will Bitcoin reach $200k in May? SELL No 100¢ $5 419d
Will Bitcoin reach $200k in May? BUY No 100¢ $5 419d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $53.46 · official $53.46 (match) · 105 history records