Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T21:47:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

5.5
score
90 0x90d4…2dee sports 1004 markets active 2h ago coverage 69d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 69d only
! high turnover
Total PnL +$10,213 (+70%) realized +$10,229 · open −$16
Gross ROI / mkt +30% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +0% what you keep after slip
Net edge+0%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate56%560W / 441L
Drawdown8%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day41.6pace
Fees−$451est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$29now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$55
7 days+$2,907
14 days+$7,126
30 days+$8,035
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 65% +$7,567
other 24% +$2,154
crypto 11% −$154
politics 0% +$80
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)+17.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +10.4% -0.1% 57% 43% +83.5%
≤30d 500 +12.9% +2.2% 65% 40% +54.9%
≤90d 1001 +29.9% +17.6% 56% 42% +46.8%
all 1001 +29.9% +17.6% 56% 42% +46.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover41.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +17.6% 42% +46.8%
10% ← realistic here +6.3% 33% +32.7%
15% -4.0% 28% +19.9%
20% -13.4% 26% +8.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +69% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +30% · $-wt +69% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +47% → late +13% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$7 · ×3.34 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.31 per $1 lost it wins $4.31
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

69d coverage
Net worth$29
Realized+$10,229
Unrealized−$16
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses560 / 441
Est. fees paid−$451
Open positions3
Markets (closed)1001 / 1004
History coverage69d ⚠
Avg bet$15
Trades / day41.6
Drawdown8%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 1001 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will CA Nacional Potosí win on 2026-05-24? No 42¢ 26¢ $44 $28 −$16 (-36%)
Japan vs. Sweden: Japan O/U 0.5 Under 16¢ 16¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 Under 13¢ 28¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+114%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 34 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs Inner Circle (BO3) - The International Europe Cl Jun 21 $77 +$55 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -99%
Netherlands leading at halftime? Jun 21 $106 +$2 +1%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $11 $0 -0%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $72 −$8 -11%
Will Tunisia vs. Netherlands end in a draw? Jun 21 $211 −$6 -3%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Jun 21 $142 −$4 -2%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $13 +$12 +95%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $102 −$102 -100%
Honor of Kings: AG Super Play vs WST (BO5) - King Pro League Stage 1 G Jun 20 $1 $0 -3%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 2.5 Corners Jun 18 $23 +$2 +10%
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $113 +$127 +112%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $36 +$20 +55%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 18 $302 +$214 +71%
Luis Mejía: 4+ saves Jun 17 $40 −$40 -100%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Austria? Jun 17 $1,409 +$2,622 +186%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Lindorfitos - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $56 +$1 +1%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Lindorfitos - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire leading at halftime? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +85%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $4 $0 +11%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Grey Trac - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Grey Trac (BO3) - The International China Close Jun 15 $37 +$7 +18%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $52 +$21 +40%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $3 +$19 +628%
Spain to win the second half? Jun 14 $22 +$33 +150%
Leroy Sané: 2+ goals Jun 14 $26 +$28 +107%
Spread: Canada (-3.5) Jun 14 $663 +$2,094 +316%
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 14 $52 +$4 +7%
Spread: Brazil (-4.5) Jun 14 $316 +$884 +280%
Spread: Germany (-5.5) Jun 14 $310 +$794 +256%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 13.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $76 +$41 +54%
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO? Jun 14 $24 +$15 +62%
OG Anunoby: Assists O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $0 +$2 +1011%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $95 −$95 -100%
Arda Güler: 1+ goals Jun 14 $10 +$8 +82%
Spread: Haiti (-1.5) Jun 13 $174 +$179 +103%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $78 +$2 +3%
Spread: Spain (-4.5) Jun 13 $155 +$266 +172%
Granit Xhaka: 1+ assists Jun 13 $19 +$10 +56%
Game Handicap: GAL (-1.5) vs Misa Esports (+1.5) Jun 13 $14 +$9 +65%
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will Alex Pereira win by KO or TKO? Jun 13 $21 +$7 +33%
Game 1: Any Player Penta Kill? Jun 13 $2 +$2 +85%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 13 $26 −$5 -19%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Natus Vincere (-3.5) vs TheMongolz (+3.5) Jun 13 $53 +$62 +118%
Julio César Enciso: 2+ shots Jun 12 $153 −$153 -100%
Counter-Strike: F5 Esports vs Wanted Goons - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $21 $0 +0%
Julio César Enciso: 1+ shots Jun 12 $84 −$84 -100%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $153 +$121 +79%
Will Maghreb AS de Fès win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1 +$2 +186%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs Inner Circle (BO3) - The International Europe Cl SELL Virtus.pro 76¢ $133 1h
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs Inner Circle (BO3) - The International Europe Cl BUY Virtus.pro 44¢ $77 2h
Japan vs. Sweden: Japan O/U 0.5 BUY Under 16¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $5 9h
Netherlands leading at halftime? SELL No 35¢ $107 9h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain O/U 1.5 SELL Under 16¢ $0 9h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain O/U 1.5 SELL Under 16¢ $0 9h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain O/U 1.5 SELL Under 16¢ $11 9h
Netherlands leading at halftime? BUY No 34¢ $106 12h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain O/U 1.5 BUY Under 16¢ $11 13h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 11¢ $64 14h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 12¢ $72 15h
Will Tunisia vs. Netherlands end in a draw? SELL Yes 12¢ $206 15h
Will Tunisia vs. Netherlands end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $15 15h
Will Tunisia vs. Netherlands end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $117 15h
Will Tunisia vs. Netherlands end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $7 15h
Will Tunisia vs. Netherlands end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $72 15h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? SELL No 16¢ $139 15h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 16¢ $142 15h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 49¢ $25 16h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 25¢ $13 17h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 0.5 BUY Under 12¢ $4 17h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 0.5 BUY Under 12¢ $98 17h
Honor of Kings: AG Super Play vs WST (BO5) - King Pro League Stage 1 G SELL WST 11¢ $1 28h
Honor of Kings: AG Super Play vs WST (BO5) - King Pro League Stage 1 G BUY WST 11¢ $1 31h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 2.5 Corners SELL Under 25¢ $25 3d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Under 22¢ $23 3d
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs - Game 1 Winner SELL Estar Backs 35¢ $240 3d
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs - Game 1 Winner BUY Estar Backs 10¢ $19 3d
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs - Game 1 Winner BUY Estar Backs 15¢ $25 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.16 · official $29.13 (match) · 3500 history records