Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T04:58:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
90 0x90e0…ff4c crypto 682 markets active 0h ago coverage 65d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 64d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$15,278 (+140%) realized +$15,265 · open +$13
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate42%280W / 384L
Drawdown32%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day43.5pace
Fees−$23est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$234now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 65d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 42% +$4,633
crypto 38% −$122
sports 19% −$62
world 1% −$137
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-4.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 346 -58.0% -62.0% 23% 22% -57.3%
≤30d 581 -7.8% -16.6% 46% 44% -24.8%
≤90d 664 +5.1% -4.9% 42% 40% -19.1%
all 664 +5.1% -4.9% 42% 40% -19.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover43.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.9% 40% -19.1%
10% ← realistic here -14.0% 37% -26.8%
15% -22.3% 35% -33.9%
20% -29.9% 32% -40.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 52% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +40% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +40% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +70% → late -60% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$37 vs −$16 · ×2.35 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.71 per $1 lost it wins $1.71
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

65d coverage
Net worth$234
Realized+$15,265
Unrealized+$13
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses280 / 384
Est. fees paid−$23
Open positions18
Markets (closed)664 / 682
History coverage65d ⚠
Avg bet$16
Trades / day43.5
Drawdown32%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 18 History 664 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz Taylor Fritz 72¢ 72¢ $43 $43 −$0 (-1%)
Halle Open: Karen Khachanov vs Ethan Quinn Karen Khachanov 71¢ 70¢ $21 $21 −$0 (-1%)
Poznan: Gonzalo Bueno vs Tomasz Berkieta Gonzalo Bueno 71¢ 76¢ $18 $19 +$1 (+7%)
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Diane Parry vs Ella Seidel Diane Parry 62¢ 92¢ $12 $18 +$6 (+50%)
Nottingham 2: Luca Nardi vs Remy Bertola Luca Nardi 61¢ 60¢ $18 $18 −$0 (-1%)
Parma: Jesper de Jong vs Laslo Djere Jesper de Jong 51¢ 50¢ $18 $18 −$0 (-1%)
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Katerina Siniakova vs Yue Yuan Katerina Siniakova 71¢ 84¢ $14 $17 +$3 (+18%)
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Miomir Kecmanovic Miomir Kecmanovic 55¢ 55¢ $16 $16 +$0 (+0%)
HSBC Championships: Botic van de Zandschulp vs Harry Wendelken Botic van de Zandschulp 64¢ 66¢ $13 $13 +$0 (+3%)
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Suzan Lamens vs Dalma Galfi Suzan Lamens 36¢ 71¢ $5 $11 +$5 (+96%)
Poznan: Hynek Barton vs Kimmer Coppejans Hynek Barton 52¢ 56¢ $8 $8 +$1 (+7%)
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Petra Marcinko vs Aoi Ito Petra Marcinko 58¢ 72¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+24%)
Poznan: Michele Ribecai vs Henri Squire Henri Squire 60¢ 62¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+2%)
Halle Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Daniel Altmaier Nikoloz Basilashvili 53¢ 57¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+8%)
Nottingham 2: Alastair Gray vs Tristan Schoolkate Alastair Gray 43¢ 46¢ $4 $5 +$0 (+8%)
Nottingham 2: Oliver Tarvet vs Roman Safiullin Oliver Tarvet 40¢ 38¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-4%)
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Lulu Sun vs Anhelina Kalinina Lulu Sun 39¢ 14¢ $8 $3 −$5 (-63%)
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Maria Timofeeva vs Renata Zarazua Maria Timofeeva 56¢ 58¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cattolica: Jesper de Jong vs Roberto Carballes Baena Jun 14 $6 +$4 +57%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Antonia Ruzic vs Taylah Preston Jun 14 $3 +$2 +65%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Himeno Sakatsume vs Alicia Dudeney Jun 14 $4 +$6 +167%
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur Jun 14 $1 +$4 +335%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Giovanni Mp Jun 14 $6 +$4 +62%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 14 $2 +$3 +122%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Katie Volynets vs Kimberly Birrell Jun 14 $3 +$2 +86%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Polina Kudermetova vs Sinja Jun 14 $8 −$1 -8%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Aleksandar Vukic vs Harry Wendelken Jun 14 $10 $0 +4%
Halle Open, Qualification: Lorenzo Sonego vs Nikoloz Basilashvili Jun 14 $3 +$7 +208%
Halle Open, Qualification: Raphael Collignon vs Roberto Bautista Agut Jun 14 $3 +$2 +61%
Bratislava: Alexander Shevchenko vs Taro Daniel Jun 14 $11 +$4 +32%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Anna Blinkova vs Anna Bondar Jun 14 $9 +$6 +65%
Ilkley: Ashlyn Krueger vs Celine Naef Jun 14 $3 +$2 +75%
Libema Open: Robin Montgomery vs Barbora Krejcikova Jun 14 $36 −$1 -3%
ITF Martos: Joao Domingues vs Pablo Martinez Gomez Jun 14 $11 −$10 -99%
ITF Guimaraes: Aliona Falei vs Savannah Broadus Jun 14 $12 −$8 -63%
ITF Ceska Lipa: Julia Avdeeva vs Eva Vedder Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
ITF Wuning: Yujia Huang vs Zongyu Li Jun 14 $12 +$7 +57%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 30, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 30, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 30, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 30, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 30, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 30, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 30, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 30, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 30, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Angola vs. Central African Republic: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Ilkley: Viktorija Golubic vs Katie Swan Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Alexander Bublik vs Taylor Fritz Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Libema Open: Jaume Munar vs Martin Damm Jun 14 $42 −$2 -6%
Ilkley (Doubles): Brooks/Rajecki vs Harrison/Osborne Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Ilkley: Elizabeth Mandlik vs Dalma Galfi Jun 14 $8 −$3 -40%
Tucuman: Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida vs Johan Alexander Rodriguez Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Harry Wendelken vs Adam Walton Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Hannah Klugman vs Anastasia Zakharova Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Lyon (Doubles): Isaro/Poonacha vs Mansouri/Neuchrist Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Libema Open: Panna Udvardy vs Daria Snigur Jun 14 $25 −$10 -41%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 30, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 30, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 30, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 30, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 30, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Halle Open: Karen Khachanov vs Ethan Quinn BUY Karen Khachanov 71¢ $14 25m
Halle Open: Karen Khachanov vs Ethan Quinn BUY Karen Khachanov 71¢ $7 25m
HSBC Championships: Botic van de Zandschulp vs Harry Wendelken BUY Botic van de Zandschulp 64¢ $6 30m
HSBC Championships: Botic van de Zandschulp vs Harry Wendelken BUY Botic van de Zandschulp 65¢ $6 30m
Parma: Jesper de Jong vs Laslo Djere BUY Jesper de Jong 51¢ $5 1h
Parma: Jesper de Jong vs Laslo Djere BUY Jesper de Jong 51¢ $5 1h
Parma: Jesper de Jong vs Laslo Djere BUY Jesper de Jong 51¢ $10 1h
Nottingham 2: Alastair Gray vs Tristan Schoolkate BUY Alastair Gray 43¢ $4 2h
Nottingham 2: Luca Nardi vs Remy Bertola BUY Luca Nardi 61¢ $12 2h
Nottingham 2: Luca Nardi vs Remy Bertola BUY Luca Nardi 61¢ $6 2h
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Miomir Kecmanovic BUY Miomir Kecmanovic 56¢ $6 5h
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Miomir Kecmanovic BUY Miomir Kecmanovic 54¢ $5 5h
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Miomir Kecmanovic BUY Miomir Kecmanovic 55¢ $6 5h
Halle Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Daniel Altmaier BUY Nikoloz Basilashvili 53¢ $5 6h
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 72¢ $15 6h
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 72¢ $15 6h
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 72¢ $7 6h
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 72¢ $7 6h
Nottingham 2: Oliver Tarvet vs Roman Safiullin BUY Oliver Tarvet 40¢ $4 9h
Poznan: Hynek Barton vs Kimmer Coppejans BUY Hynek Barton 52¢ $3 10h
Poznan: Gonzalo Bueno vs Tomasz Berkieta BUY Gonzalo Bueno 72¢ $4 10h
Poznan: Gonzalo Bueno vs Tomasz Berkieta BUY Gonzalo Bueno 72¢ $4 10h
Poznan: Gonzalo Bueno vs Tomasz Berkieta BUY Gonzalo Bueno 71¢ $4 10h
Poznan: Gonzalo Bueno vs Tomasz Berkieta BUY Gonzalo Bueno 71¢ $4 10h
Poznan: Gonzalo Bueno vs Tomasz Berkieta BUY Gonzalo Bueno 71¢ $4 11h
Poznan: Hynek Barton vs Kimmer Coppejans BUY Hynek Barton 52¢ $3 11h
Poznan: Hynek Barton vs Kimmer Coppejans BUY Hynek Barton 51¢ $3 11h
Poznan: Michele Ribecai vs Henri Squire BUY Henri Squire 60¢ $3 11h
Poznan: Michele Ribecai vs Henri Squire BUY Henri Squire 61¢ $3 11h
Parma: Jesper de Jong vs Laslo Djere BUY Laslo Djere 51¢ $3 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $234.33 · official $234.33 (match) · 3500 history records