Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T03:24:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
90 0x90e7…6f0e weather 531 markets active 2h ago coverage 102d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$230 (+2%) realized +$230 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate37%197W / 334L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day9.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$190
7 days−$90
14 days−$90
30 days−$109
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 47% +$236
other 41% −$136
weather 10% −$101
sports 1% −$53
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-28.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -13.5% -21.7% 44% 44% -15.7%
≤30d 154 -17.0% -24.9% 61% 19% -14.7%
≤90d 475 -22.4% -29.8% 35% 21% -12.5%
all 531 -21.3% -28.8% 37% 21% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.8% 21% -9.9%
10% -35.6% 19% -18.5%
15% -41.8% 16% -26.4%
20% -47.5% 15% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
42% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -15% → late -28% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$5 · ×1.64 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

102d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$230
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses197 / 334
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)531 / 531
History coverage102d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day9.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 531 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $280 −$207 -74%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $71 −$42 -60%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $80 +$20 +24%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Australia? Jun 19 $33 +$30 +92%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $62 −$32 -52%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $177 +$63 +36%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $165 +$94 +57%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $53 −$53 -100%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $133 +$32 +24%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 +$30 +30%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $49 +$14 +30%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 $0 -4%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 16 $10 −$1 -7%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $56 −$5 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on June 3? Jun 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 24°C or below on June 3? Jun 04 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on June 3? Jun 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 3? Jun 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 3? Jun 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 3? Jun 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 3? Jun 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 3? Jun 04 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 3? Jun 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 3? Jun 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $40 +$16 +40%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 35°C on June 3? Jun 03 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 03 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 34°C on June 1? Jun 02 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 32°C or below on June 1? Jun 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 1? Jun 02 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 1? Jun 02 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 1? Jun 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on May 31? Jun 02 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 36°C on June 1? Jun 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 1? Jun 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 1? Jun 02 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 1? Jun 01 $1 +$4 +338%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 1? Jun 01 $5 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 1? Jun 01 $3 +$3 +99%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 1? Jun 01 $3 +$3 +107%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C or below on June 1? Jun 01 $5 +$1 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on June 1? Jun 01 $4 +$1 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 1? Jun 01 $4 +$1 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on May 31? Jun 01 $5 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on May 31? Jun 01 $10 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on May 31? Jun 01 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 29°C on May 30? May 31 $5 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 22¢ $51 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 23¢ $21 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 84¢ $280 4h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 28¢ $28 6h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 68¢ $71 8h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 80¢ $80 11h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Australia? BUY Yes 49¢ $30 30h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Australia? SELL Yes 23¢ $3 31h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? SELL Yes 11¢ $29 31h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 84¢ $240 31h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Australia? BUY Yes 22¢ $3 31h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $62 37h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $177 37h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 54¢ $20 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $165 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 89¢ $165 3d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $133 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 78¢ $131 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $101 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $53 3d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $38 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 32¢ $10 4d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 28¢ $9 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-26? SELL No 46¢ $9 4d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 29¢ $10 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 32¢ $10 4d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 20¢ $10 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 48¢ $10 4d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 15¢ $51 5d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $56 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1392 history records