Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T02:40:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
90 0x90e8…2aab sports 48 markets active 2h ago coverage 8d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$96 (-5%) realized −$96 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +74% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +51% what you keep after slip
Net edge+51%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate43%9W / 12L
Drawdown31%max
Avg bet$44per market
Trades / day7.3pace
Fees−$30est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$279
7 days+$372
14 days+$651
30 days+$651
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 70% +$314
other 30% +$337
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)+57.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +59.2% +44.0% 41% 41% +38.9%
≤30d 21 +73.5% +57.0% 43% 43% +55.6%
≤90d 21 +73.5% +57.0% 43% 43% +55.6%
all 21 +73.5% +57.0% 43% 43% +55.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +57.0% 43% +55.6%
10% +42.0% 38% +40.7%
15% +28.3% 38% +27.1%
20% +15.7% 38% +14.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +72% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +74% · $-wt +72% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +123% → late +28% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$113 vs −$30 · ×3.71 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.78 per $1 lost it wins $2.78
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$96
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses9 / 12
Est. fees paid−$30
Open positions0
Markets (closed)21 / 48
History coverage8d
Avg bet$44
Trades / day7.3
Drawdown31%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 21 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) AND Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 AND Will DR Con Jun 28 $33 +$70 +213%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $58 +$277 +474%
Spread: England (-1.5) AND Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? AND Will Cr Jun 27 $9 −$8 -92%
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 AND Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $67 −$4 -6%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 3.5 AND Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $54 −$22 -40%
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? Jun 27 $15 −$15 -97%
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 2 France? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 3 France? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -97%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) AND England vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 Jun 24 $48 +$68 +143%
England vs. Ghana: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $102 −$102 -100%
England vs. Ghana: Draw at halftime? Jun 23 $18 +$3 +20%
England leading at halftime? Jun 23 $102 −$34 -33%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $68 −$67 -98%
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score AND Will Algeria win on 2026-0 Jun 23 $54 +$145 +268%
Emam Ashour: 1+ goals Jun 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Draw at halftime? Jun 21 $10 +$14 +139%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score AND Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) Jun 21 $16 +$85 +518%
Kai Havertz: 1+ assists Jun 20 $68 −$68 -100%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score AND Will Germany win on 20 Jun 20 $102 +$145 +142%
Alexander Isak: 1+ goals Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Alexander Isak: 1+ assists Jun 20 $35 +$208 +596%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 17¢ $58 1h
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) AND Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY 19¢ $45 2h
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 3.5 AND Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? AND BUY 38¢ $88 2h
Spread: England (-1.5) AND Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? AND Will Cr SELL 1¢ $1 3h
Exact Score: Croatia 2 - 1 Ghana? AND Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY 5¢ $11 6h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) AND Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 AND Will DR Con BUY 31¢ $33 6h
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 AND Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? SELL 45¢ $63 7h
Spread: England (-1.5) AND Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? AND Will Cr BUY 8¢ $9 9h
Panama vs. England: O/U 3.5 AND Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 AND Algeria BUY 9¢ $24 9h
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) AND Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? AND Exac BUY 12¢ $28 9h
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 AND Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY 46¢ $67 9h
Spread: England (-2.5) AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY 24¢ $25 10h
Harry Kane: 2+ goals AND Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY 13¢ $15 10h
Panama vs. England: O/U 3.5 AND Spread: England (-1.5) BUY 44¢ $48 10h
Spread: England (-1.5) AND Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY 32¢ $32 12h
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals AND Harry Kane: 1+ goals AND Cristiano Ronaldo: BUY 9¢ $20 15h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 3.5 AND Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? SELL 27¢ $32 22h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 3.5 AND Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? BUY 44¢ $54 23h
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $15 24h
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 2 France? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 42h
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 3 France? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 42h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Sweden win on 2026-06-2 BUY 12¢ $15 2d
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Tunisia O/U 0.5 AND Will Australia win on 202 BUY 8¢ $10 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06- BUY 24¢ $37 3d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? AND Will Korea Re BUY 34¢ $51 3d
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners AND Panama vs. Croatia: O/U BUY 41¢ $68 4d
England vs. Ghana: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $21 4d
England vs. Ghana: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 46¢ $102 4d
England vs. Ghana: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 83¢ $18 4d
England leading at halftime? SELL Yes 18¢ $68 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $161.37 · 67 history records