Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T00:47:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
90 0x90e8…562d crypto 108 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (143 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$244 (-8%) realized −$239 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate31%33W / 74L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day143.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$36now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$437
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (143 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-21.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 107 -13.4% -21.6% 31% 26% -21.8%
≤30d 107 -13.4% -21.6% 31% 26% -21.8%
≤90d 107 -13.4% -21.6% 31% 26% -21.8%
all 107 -13.4% -21.6% 31% 26% -21.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover143.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -21.6% 26% -21.8%
10% ← realistic here -29.1% 24% -29.3%
15% -36.0% 22% -36.1%
20% -42.3% 20% -42.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$30 vs −$19 · ×1.56 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$36
Realized−$239
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses33 / 74
Open positions1
Markets (closed)107 / 108
History coverage1d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day143.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 107 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Solana reach $80 on June 29? Yes 14¢ 1¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-93%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 30 $21 +$16 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 30 $82 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 30 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 30 $11 +$7 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 30 $11 −$9 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 30 $11 +$7 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 30 $11 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 29 $11 −$10 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 29 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 29 $11 −$11 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 29 $63 −$2 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 29 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 29 $85 −$22 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 29 $16 +$7 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 29 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 29 $11 −$10 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 29 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 29 $26 +$5 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 29 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 29 $11 +$9 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 29 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 29 $52 +$64 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 29 $58 −$6 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 29 $21 −$21 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 29 $32 +$30 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 29 $21 +$11 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 29 $116 −$116 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 29 $75 +$41 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 29 $68 +$7 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 29 $15 +$4 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 29 $14 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 29 $5 −$5 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 29 $7 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 29 $19 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 29 $11 +$8 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 29 $11 −$9 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 29 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 29 $32 +$10 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 29 $54 −$54 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 29 $50 +$45 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 29 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 29 $11 +$29 +266%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 29 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 29 $54 −$54 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 29 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 29 $22 +$73 +335%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $21 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $82 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $5 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $11 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET SELL Up 6¢ $2 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $11 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $11 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $11 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET SELL Up 2¢ $1 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $11 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET SELL Up 1¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $63 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $64 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $22 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET SELL Up 4¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $16 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $116 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $36 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.03 · official $36.05 (match) · 233 history records