Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T04:36:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
90 0x90e8…ba12 other 133 markets active 1h ago coverage 137d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$2,261 (+1%) realized +$2,260 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate21%28W / 103L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown28%max
Avg bet$1,358per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$38est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$624now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$12
14 days+$96
30 days+$221
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 41% −$103
other 41% +$180
sports 11% +$2,187
economics 3% −$6
world 2% −$3
culture 1% −$2
crypto 1% −$24
tech 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-4.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 34 +11.8% +1.1% 15% 9% -9.2%
≤90d 83 -3.8% -12.9% 10% 6% -8.2%
all 131 +5.2% -4.8% 21% 13% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.8% 13% -8.4%
10% -13.9% 13% -17.2%
15% -22.2% 12% -25.2%
20% -29.9% 9% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 76% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
39% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,912) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +3% → late +8% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$112 vs −$9 · ×12.71 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.49 per $1 lost it wins $3.49
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

137d coverage
Net worth$624
Realized+$2,260
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses28 / 103
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$38
Open positions2
Markets (closed)131 / 133
History coverage137d
Avg bet$1,358
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown28%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 131 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? No 99¢ 99¢ $415 $415 +$1 (+0%)
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? No 100¢ 100¢ $208 $208 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 16 $4,011 −$6 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $2,423 −$3 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $1,649 −$3 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $3,332 −$5 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 10 $1,644 −$3 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $2,845 −$3 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $1,688 −$3 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $2,917 −$3 -0%
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 08 $1,547 −$2 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 07 $2,617 −$3 -0%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 06 $77 +$52 +67%
New York Mets vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 04 $61 +$78 +129%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 03 $1,173 −$2 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 02 $820 −$1 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 02 $650 −$1 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? Jun 02 $697 +$2 +0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 01 $1,040 −$1 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $1,040 −$1 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $1,786 −$2 -0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 01 $697 +$1 +0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 28 $2,418 −$3 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 28 $867 −$1 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 27 $884 −$1 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 27 $1,714 −$2 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 26 $1,603 −$2 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 25 $3,754 −$4 -0%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) May 25 $47 −$47 -100%
Will AC Milan win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $67 +$207 +307%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $2,674 −$4 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 22 $1,245 −$2 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 21 $1,410 −$2 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $2,582 −$3 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 21 $1,075 −$2 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 20 $2,865 −$3 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $4,174 −$5 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 10 $1,307 −$2 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 10 $1,305 −$2 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 09 $2,609 −$4 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 09 $1,652 −$3 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $3,496 −$4 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? May 08 $1,689 −$2 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $2,655 −$3 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $1,318 −$2 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 07 $3,900 −$5 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? May 06 $1,696 −$2 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $1,800 −$2 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 05 $1,454 −$2 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 05 $1,203 −$2 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $3,134 −$3 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $1,340 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $208 1h
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,565 43h
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,567 45h
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,567 2d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,570 2d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,646 4d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,649 4d
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? BUY No 99¢ $415 5d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,640 7d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,642 7d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,641 7d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,644 7d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,651 7d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,653 8d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,685 8d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,688 8d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,619 8d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,621 8d
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $1,546 10d
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $1,547 10d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,673 10d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,675 11d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,558 11d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,560 11d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes BUY Hurricanes 59¢ $77 13d
New York Mets vs. Seattle Mariners BUY New York Mets 43¢ $61 14d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,172 14d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,173 15d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $819 15d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $820 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $623.52 · official $623.52 (match) · 422 history records