Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T17:45:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
90 0x90ec…1792 other 157 markets active 1h ago coverage 51d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$382 (-11%) realized −$392 · open +$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate33%49W / 98L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day5.8pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit29%portable
Net worth$190now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$107
7 days−$59
14 days−$72
30 days−$72
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 64% −$439
sports 33% +$14
crypto 2% −$47
world 1% +$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-32.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 49 +0.4% -9.1% 47% 33% -12.3%
≤30d 52 -2.4% -11.7% 46% 33% -12.8%
≤90d 147 -24.9% -32.1% 33% 27% -21.8%
all 147 -24.9% -32.1% 33% 27% -21.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -32.1% 27% -21.8%
10% -38.6% 24% -29.3%
15% -44.5% 21% -36.1%
20% -49.9% 16% -42.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -49% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$11 · ×1.15 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

51d coverage
Net worth$190
Realized−$392
Unrealized+$10
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses49 / 98
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions10
Markets (closed)147 / 157
History coverage51d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day5.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit29%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 147 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 69¢ 68¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 70¢ 69¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? No 31¢ 46¢ $10 $15 +$5 (+47%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? No 64¢ 90¢ $10 $14 +$4 (+41%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? No 52¢ 72¢ $10 $14 +$4 (+39%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 20¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+7%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? Yes 38¢ 38¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 13¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-9%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 60 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $35 −$33 -95%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $24 +$10 +42%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $81 +$43 +52%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $20 −$1 -5%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $65 −$3 -5%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $180 −$116 -64%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $20 −$19 -93%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $21 +$9 +41%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $179 +$6 +3%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $7 $0 -6%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $23 −$22 -98%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $15 −$15 -98%
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $321 +$12 +4%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $6 −$1 -24%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $10 +$1 +10%
Spread: Canada (-2.5) Jun 18 $1 +$2 +180%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 18 $3 +$2 +62%
Spread: Qatar (-1.5) Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 −$4 -41%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $25 +$11 +42%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $20 +$7 +36%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $7 −$7 -98%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $2 +$7 +365%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 $0 +2%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -97%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $101 +$33 +32%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$4 -39%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $30 −$18 -58%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $10 −$10 -99%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $121 +$19 +16%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $5 +$6 +116%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -95%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $272 +$31 +11%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $16 +$12 +74%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $12 −$3 -22%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$9 +88%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $4 $0 +8%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$9 +90%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$1 -4%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$25 +248%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 −$2 -38%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $135 +$5 +4%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $17 −$16 -90%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $15 −$12 -79%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $15 +$8 +52%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $50 59m
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $50 59m
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 0¢ $2 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 10¢ $35 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 98¢ $34 12h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $24 17h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $19 38h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 48¢ $19 38h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $62 38h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 45¢ $62 38h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 46¢ $65 38h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 29¢ $64 39h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 5¢ $1 39h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 81¢ $30 39h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $30 39h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 82¢ $144 39h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 67¢ $20 40h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $164 40h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 44¢ $7 40h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $7 40h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 70¢ $21 40h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 95¢ $21 40h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 96¢ $179 40h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 49¢ $20 40h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 41h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 38¢ $10 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 2d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $15 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $190.25 · official $190.26 (match) · 322 history records