Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T09:52:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

90
0x90ed…b5bc
sports · 29 markets active 3h ago
0.0score
+$299,757 +264%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$45,453 · open −$17,989
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$164,432
Realized−$45,453
Unrealized−$17,989
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses5 / 30
Whale WR (big bets)22%
Est. fees paid−$846
Open positions105
Markets (closed)35 / 29
History coverage65d
Avg bet$3,915
Trades / day51.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%
Chart Positions 105 History 35 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4,359
7 days−$4,359
14 days−$15,923
30 days−$6,355
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 16¢ 9¢ $67,454 $37,048 −$30,406 (-45%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 12¢ 24¢ $14,269 $29,742 +$15,474 (+108%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 10¢ $20,456 $17,054 −$3,402 (-17%)
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 39¢ 33¢ $17,740 $14,982 −$2,758 (-16%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 50¢ 77¢ $7,778 $11,985 +$4,208 (+54%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 28¢ 23¢ $7,511 $6,252 −$1,258 (-17%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $5,302 $5,160 −$142 (-3%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No 61¢ 90¢ $2,982 $4,347 +$1,364 (+46%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 45¢ 23¢ $8,361 $4,262 −$4,099 (-49%)
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? No 83¢ 94¢ $3,404 $3,850 +$445 (+13%)
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $3,399 $3,812 +$412 (+12%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 77¢ 99¢ $2,480 $3,197 +$717 (+29%)
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? No 15¢ 84¢ $500 $2,816 +$2,316 (+463%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 48¢ 50¢ $2,666 $2,805 +$139 (+5%)
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026? No 45¢ 90¢ $1,000 $2,011 +$1,011 (+101%)
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 67¢ 60¢ $2,244 $1,983 −$261 (-12%)
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 3¢ 4¢ $1,495 $1,904 +$409 (+27%)
Trump out as President before GTA VI? Yes 51¢ 50¢ $1,879 $1,861 −$18 (-1%)
Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 53¢ 58¢ $1,611 $1,778 +$167 (+10%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 81¢ 86¢ $1,337 $1,410 +$73 (+5%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $851 $746 −$105 (-12%)
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 4¢ 7¢ $331 $669 +$338 (+102%)
Will there be another US government shutdown by January 31 and will the Democratic Party win the House in 2026? Yes 12¢ 81¢ $77 $523 +$446 (+580%)
Will the Republicans win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 53¢ 60¢ $319 $360 +$41 (+13%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $340 $343 +$3 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Rick Reider be confirmed as Fed Chair? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Jerome Powell be confirmed as Fed Chair? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $2.0T at market close on IPO Jun 14 $196 −$196 -100%
Will SpaceX not IPO by December 31, 2027? Jun 14 $289 −$276 -96%
Will Scott Bessent be confirmed as Fed Chair? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? Jun 14 $876 −$539 -62%
Will Aston Villa win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jun 14 $0 +$553 +259598%
Will Christopher Waller be confirmed as Fed Chair? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Michelle Bowman be confirmed as Fed Chair? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Jun 14 $55 −$55 -100%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Jun 14 $2,251 −$2,251 -100%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? Jun 14 $1,456 −$1,456 -100%
Will Kevin Hassett be confirmed as Fed Chair? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $1T at market close on IPO da Jun 14 $6,134 −$6,012 -98%
Will Stephen Miran be confirmed as Fed Chair? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $393 +$7,412 +1888%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $1,500 −$1,500 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 04 $11,566 −$11,564 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 31 $10,599 −$10,540 -99%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 29 $3,504 −$3,466 -99%
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 20 $3,200 +$1,244 +39%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 20 $5,500 +$22,330 +406%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 05 $3,555 −$11,207 -315%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? May 01 $18,824 +$64 +0%
Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $500B at market close on IPO day Apr 27 $1 −$125 -15895%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $2,008 −$2,476 -123%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $770 −$719 -93%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $4,185 −$15,254 -364%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? Apr 22 $800 −$800 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? Apr 22 $411 −$411 -100%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $1,135 −$1,134 -100%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $1,277 −$1,167 -91%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $1,149 −$258 -22%
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 15 $311 −$112 -36%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? Apr 15 $119 −$5,499 -4635%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 53% −$30,864
world 26% −$6,688
sports 12% −$4,807
politics 8% −$3,687
tech 1% −$7,123
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 48¢ $1,427 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 48¢ $0 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 48¢ $38 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 48¢ $462 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 48¢ $1 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 48¢ $62 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 48¢ $0 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 48¢ $7 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 48¢ $2 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 48¢ $9 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 48¢ $268 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 48¢ $5 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 48¢ $20 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 48¢ $6 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 48¢ $5 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 48¢ $5 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 48¢ $5 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 48¢ $12 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 48¢ $16 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 48¢ $319 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $25 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $73 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $600 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $4 4h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $0 4h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $2,422 4h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $491 4h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $156 4h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 23¢ $602 4h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)+28.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +143.1% +119.9% 12% 12% -43.2%
≤30d 22 +117.1% +96.5% 18% 18% -22.7%
≤90d 35 +42.3% +28.8% 14% 11% -47.3%
all 35 +42.3% +28.8% 14% 11% -47.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover51.5 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +28.8% 11% -47.3%
10% +16.5% 11% -52.4%
15% ← realistic here +5.2% 11% -57.0%
20% -5.1% 9% -61.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $164,431.64 · official $164,431.66 (match) · 3500 history records